Genomic diversity of Yersinia pestis from Yunnan Province, China, implies a potential common ancestor as the source of two plague epidemics.

Plague, caused by Yersinia pestis, is a zoonotic disease that can reemerge and cause outbreaks following decades of latency in natural plague foci. However, the genetic diversity and spread pattern of Y. pestis during these epidemic-silent cycles remain unclear. In this study, we analyze 356 Y. pestis genomes isolated between 1952 and 2016 in the Yunnan Rattus tanezumi plague focus, China, covering two epidemic-silent cycles. Through high-resolution genomic epidemiological analysis, we find that 96% of Y. pestis genomes belong to phylogroup 1.ORI2 and are subdivided into two sister clades (Sublineage1 and Sublineage2) characterized by different temporal-spatial distributions and genetic diversity. Most of the Sublineage1 strains are isolated from the first epidemic-silent cycle, while Sublineage2 strains are predominantly from the second cycle and revealing a west to east spread. The two sister clades evolved in parallel from a common ancestor and independently lead to two separate epidemics, confirming that the pathogen responsible for the second epidemic following the silent interval is not a descendant of the causative strain of the first epidemic. Our results provide a mechanism for defining epidemic-silent cycles in natural plague foci, which is valuable in the prevention and control of future plague outbreaks.