Assessing the origins of the European Plagues following the Black Death: A synthesis of genomic, historical, and ecological information.

The second plague pandemic started in Europe with the Black Death in 1346 and lasted until the 19th century. Based on ancient DNA studies, there is a scientific disagreement over whether the bacterium, , came into Europe once (Hypothesis 1) or repeatedly over the following four centuries (Hypothesis 2). Here, we synthesize the most updated phylogeny together with historical, archeological, evolutionary, and ecological information. On the basis of this holistic view, we conclude that Hypothesis 2 is the most plausible. We also suggest that lineages might have developed attenuated virulence during transmission, which can explain the convergent evolutionary signals, including decay, that appeared at the end of the pandemics.