Åström Christofer, Bjelkmar Pär, Forsberg Bertil
Folkhälsa och Klinisk Medicin - Yrkes- och Miljömedicin Umeå, Sweden Folkhälsa och Klinisk Medicin - Yrkes- och Miljömedicin Umeå, Sweden.
Folkhalsomyndigheten - Solna, Sweden Folkhalsomyndigheten - Solna, Sweden.
Lakartidningen. 2019 May 21;116:FLFH.
During the summer of 2018 large parts of Sweden experienced a record-breaking heatwave regarding temperatures and duration. Previous studies from Sweden with less extreme heat have shown that daily mortality is expected to increase during periods with high temperatures. Between the 2nd of July and 5th of August, the period in 2018 with the highest temperatures, 635 more deaths were observed in Sweden compared to the same period in 2017. This corresponds to an 8,2% increase over the entire heatwave, and a 13,5% increase during the warmest week, the 16th to 22nd of July. When using temperature data from four weather stations and relative risks from the models established for the Swedish heatwave early warning system, the heat episode in the summer of 2018 could be expected to result in 601-746 excess deaths, depending on model choice. Comparison with the observed mortality data therefore confirm the ability of the risk models to predict the expected increase in mortality also during longer periods with higher temperatures than ever studied before in Sweden.
2018年夏季,瑞典大部分地区经历了一场在温度和持续时间方面都破纪录的热浪。瑞典此前关于没这么极端高温的研究表明,在高温时期,日死亡率预计会上升。在2018年气温最高的时段,即7月2日至8月5日期间,瑞典观察到的死亡人数比2017年同期多635人。这相当于在整个热浪期间增加了8.2%,在最炎热的一周(7月16日至22日)增加了13.5%。当使用四个气象站的温度数据以及为瑞典热浪预警系统建立的模型中的相对风险时,根据模型选择的不同,预计2018年夏季的热浪事件会导致601至746例超额死亡。因此,将其与观察到的死亡率数据进行比较,证实了风险模型能够预测死亡率的预期上升,即便在瑞典此前从未研究过的比以往更长的高温时期也是如此。