Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health and Department of Pathology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Science. 2019 Jul 12;365(6449). doi: 10.1126/science.aax6498.
Thakkar and McCarthy suggest that periodicity in measles incidence artifactually drives our estimates of a 2- to 3-year duration of measles "immune-amnesia." We show that periodicity has a negligible effect relative to the immunological signal we detect, and demonstrate that immune-amnesia is largely undetectable in small populations with large fluctuations in mortality of the type they use for illustration.
Thakkar 和 McCarthy 认为麻疹发病率的周期性人为地影响了我们对麻疹“免疫健忘症”持续时间 2 到 3 年的估计。我们表明，相对于我们检测到的免疫信号，周期性的影响可以忽略不计，并且表明在死亡率波动较大的小群体中，免疫健忘症在很大程度上是无法检测到的，而他们正是用这种类型的死亡率来进行说明。
