Algunaibet Ibrahim M, Pozo Carlos, Galán-Martín Ángel, Huijbregts Mark A J, Mac Dowell Niall, Guillén-Gosálbez Gonzalo
Centre for Process Systems Engineering , Department of Chemical Engineering , Imperial College London , South Kensington Campus , London SW7 2AZ , UK.
Department of Environmental Science , Institute for Water and Wetland Research , Radboud University , P.O. Box 9010 , NL-6500, GL , Nijmegen , The Netherlands.
Energy Environ Sci. 2019 Jun 1;12(6):1890-1900. doi: 10.1039/c8ee03423k. Epub 2019 Jan 24.
The concept of planetary boundaries identifies a safe space for humanity. Current energy systems are primarily designed with a focus on total cost minimization and bounds on greenhouse gas emissions. Omitting planetary boundaries in energy systems design can lead to energy mixes unable to power our sustainable development. To overcome this conceptual limitation, we here incorporate planetary boundaries into energy systems models, explicitly linking energy generation with the Earth's ecological limits. Taking the United States as a testbed, we found that the least cost energy mix that would meet the Paris Agreement 2 degrees Celsius target still transgresses five out of eight planetary boundaries. It is possible to meet seven out of eight planetary boundaries concurrently by incurring a doubling of the cost compared to the least cost energy mix solution (1.3% of the United States gross domestic product in 2017). Due to the stringent downscaled planetary boundary on biogeochemical nitrogen flow, there is no energy mix in the United States capable of satisfying all planetary boundaries concurrently. Our work highlights the importance of considering planetary boundaries in energy systems design and paves the way for further research on how to effectively accomplish such integration in energy related studies.
地球边界的概念为人类确定了一个安全空间。当前的能源系统主要围绕总成本最小化和温室气体排放限制进行设计。在能源系统设计中忽略地球边界可能导致能源组合无法为我们的可持续发展提供动力。为克服这一概念上的局限性,我们在此将地球边界纳入能源系统模型,明确地将能源生产与地球的生态极限联系起来。以美国为试验平台,我们发现,符合《巴黎协定》2摄氏度目标的成本最低的能源组合仍会突破八项地球边界中的五项。与成本最低的能源组合方案相比,成本加倍(占2017年美国国内生产总值的1.3%)时有可能同时满足八项地球边界中的七项。由于生物地球化学氮流方面严格的细化地球边界,美国不存在能同时满足所有地球边界的能源组合。我们的工作突出了在能源系统设计中考虑地球边界的重要性,并为进一步研究如何在能源相关研究中有效实现这种整合铺平了道路。