Hallit Souheil, Sacre Hala, Hajj Aline, Sili Georges, Zeenny Rony M, Salameh Pascale
Faculty of Medicine and Medical Sciences, Holy Spirit University of Kaslik (USEK), Jounieh, Lebanon.
INSPECT-LB:, Institut National de Sante Publique, Epidemiologie Clinique et Toxicologie, Beirut, Lebanon.
Int J Pharm Pract. 2019 Dec;27(6):582-588. doi: 10.1111/ijpp.12564. Epub 2019 Jul 16.
Despite the rigorous regulations governing the pharmacy profession in Lebanon, the increasing numbers of pharmacy graduates seem to be the greatest threat of demise. No forecast is available to assess the long-term projections of pharmacists supply.
The objective of this manuscript is to project the future size of the Lebanese pharmacy workforce till 2050 and discuss their potential consequences on the labour market.
This study was carried out in collaboration with the Lebanese Order of Pharmacists (OPL), where official numbers were retrieved from the registered pharmacists' database from 2006 to 2017. The data were analyzed as time series using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. Projected numbers were plotted using Microsoft Excel office.
The ratio of pharmacists to 10 000 inhabitants up till the end of 2017 was estimated at 17.52, compared with a worldwide mean of 5.09, with a continuous increase seen with the coming years, possibly reaching an estimated 41.17 pharmacists per 10 000 inhabitants by the year 2050. The total number of pharmacies increased from 1546 in 2006 up to 3174 at the end of 2017 nationwide, with a major increase seen in Bekaa (206.35%) and South Lebanon (171.08%) governorates, respectively.
Our study shows that the dramatic increase in pharmacy graduates will worsen with time. To curb it, it is important to vote and apply new laws, and initiate a collaborative work between academia, professional associations, and employers from all sectors to find innovative solutions.
尽管黎巴嫩对药学专业有严格的规定，但药学专业毕业生数量的不断增加似乎是其走向衰落的最大威胁。目前尚无预测可用于评估药剂师供应的长期预测。
本文的目的是预测到2050年黎巴嫩药学劳动力的未来规模，并讨论其对劳动力市场的潜在影响。
本研究与黎巴嫩药剂师协会（OPL）合作开展，从2006年至2017年注册药剂师数据库中获取官方数据。使用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）方法将数据作为时间序列进行分析。使用Microsoft Excel办公软件绘制预测数据。
截至2017年底，药剂师与每10000名居民的比例估计为17.52，而全球平均比例为5.09，预计未来几年该比例将持续上升，到2050年估计每10000名居民中可能有41.17名药剂师。全国药店总数从2006年的1546家增加到2017年底的3174家，贝卡省（206.35%）和黎巴嫩南部省（171.08%）增长尤为显著。
我们的研究表明，药学专业毕业生的急剧增加将随着时间的推移而加剧。为了遏制这种情况，重要的是投票通过并实施新法律，并启动学术界、专业协会和各部门雇主之间的合作，以找到创新解决方案。
