Department of Management Science and Engineering, School of Economics, Management and Law, University of South China, Hengyang, China.
School of Marxism, University of South China, Hengyang, China.
Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2019 Dec;13(5-6):1017-1027. doi: 10.1017/dmp.2019.30.
Given the non-repeatability, complexity, and unpredictability of unconventional public health emergencies, building accurate models and making effective response decisions based only on traditional prediction-response decision-making methods are difficult. To solve this problem, under the scenario-response paradigm and theories on parallel emergency management and discrete event system (DES), the parallel simulation decision-making framework (PSDF), which includes the methods of abstract modeling, simulation operation, decision-making optimization, and parallel control, is proposed for unconventional public health emergency response processes. Furthermore, with the example of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) response process, the evolutionary scenarios that include infected patients and diagnostic processes are transformed into simulation processes. Then, the validity and operability of the DES-PSDF method proposed in this paper are verified by the results of a simulation experiment. The results demonstrated that, in the case of insufficient prior knowledge, effective parallel simulation models can be constructed and improved dynamically by multi-stage parallel controlling. Public health system bottlenecks and relevant effective response solutions can also be obtained by iterative simulation and optimizing decisions. To meet the urgent requirements of emergency response, the DES-PSDF method introduces a new response decision-making concept for unconventional public health emergencies.
鉴于非常规公共卫生突发事件的不可重复性、复杂性和不可预测性，仅基于传统的预测-响应决策方法来建立准确的模型和做出有效的响应决策是困难的。为了解决这个问题，在情景-响应范式和并行应急管理与离散事件系统（DES）理论的基础上，针对非常规公共卫生应急响应过程，提出了包括抽象建模、仿真运行、决策优化和并行控制方法的并行仿真决策框架（PSDF）。此外，以严重急性呼吸系统综合征（SARS）响应过程为例，将包含感染患者和诊断过程的演化情景转化为仿真过程。然后，通过仿真实验的结果验证了本文提出的 DES-PSDF 方法的有效性和可操作性。结果表明，在缺乏先验知识的情况下，可以通过多阶段并行控制动态构建和改进有效的并行仿真模型，并通过迭代仿真和优化决策获得公共卫生系统瓶颈和相关有效响应解决方案。为了满足应急响应的迫切需求，DES-PSDF 方法为非常规公共卫生突发事件引入了新的响应决策概念。
