Xie Tian, Wei Yao-Yao, Chen Wei-Fan, Huang Hai-Nan
School of Economics, Management and Law at the University of South China, Tian Xie, No. 28, West Changsheng Road, Hengyang City, Hunan Province, PR China.
Information Sciences and Technology at The Pennsylvania State University, Wei-fan Chen, 44 University Drive, Dallas, PA 18612, United States.
Eur J Oper Res. 2020 Dec 16;287(3):1131-1148. doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2020.05.025. Epub 2020 May 23.
Governments face difficulties in policy making in many areas such as health, food safety, and large-scale projects where public perceptions can be misplaced. For example, the adoption of the MMR vaccine has been opposed due to the publicity indicating an erroneous link between the vaccine and autism. This research proposes the "Parallel Evolution and Response Decision Framework for Public Sentiments" as a real-time decision-making method to simulate and control the public sentiment evolution mechanisms. This framework is based on the theories of Parallel Control and Management (PCM) and System Dynamics (SD) and includes four iterative steps: namely, SD modelling, simulating, optimizing, and controlling. A concrete case of an anti-nuclear mass incident that sparked public sentiment in China is introduced as a study sample to test the effectiveness of the proposed method. In addition, the results indicate the effects by adjusting the key control variables of response strategies. These variables include response time, response capacity, and transparency of the government regarding public sentiment. Furthermore, the advantages and disadvantages of the proposed method will be analyzed to determine how it can be used by policy makers in predicting public opinion and offering effective response strategies.
政府在许多领域制定政策时面临困难，如医疗、食品安全和大型项目，在这些领域公众的认知可能会出现偏差。例如，由于宣传表明麻疹、腮腺炎和风疹（MMR）疫苗与自闭症之间存在错误联系，该疫苗的采用遭到了反对。本研究提出了“公众情绪平行演化与响应决策框架”，作为一种实时决策方法，用于模拟和控制公众情绪演化机制。该框架基于平行控制与管理（PCM）和系统动力学（SD）理论，包括四个迭代步骤：即SD建模、模拟、优化和控制。引入了一个在中国引发公众情绪的反核群体事件的具体案例作为研究样本，以检验所提方法的有效性。此外，结果表明了通过调整响应策略的关键控制变量所产生的影响。这些变量包括响应时间、响应能力以及政府在公众情绪方面的透明度。此外，将分析所提方法的优缺点，以确定政策制定者如何利用它来预测公众舆论并提供有效的响应策略。
