UNAIDS, Geneva, Switzerland.
AIDS. 2019 Dec 15;33 Suppl 3(Suppl 3):S203-S211. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000002321.
BACKGROUND: Global targets call for a 75% reduction in new HIV infections and AIDS deaths between 2010 and 2020. UNAIDS supports countries to measure progress towards these targets. In 2019, this effort resulted in revised national, regional and global estimates reflecting the best available data. METHODS: Spectrum software was used to develop estimates for 170 countries. Country teams from 151 countries developed HIV estimates directly and estimates for an additional 19 country were developed by UNAIDS based on available evidence. 107 countries employed models using HIV prevalence data from sentinel surveillance, routinely collected HIV testing and household surveys while the remaining 63 countries applied models using HIV case surveillance and/or reported AIDS deaths. Model parameters were informed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modeling and Projections. RESULTS: HIV estimates were available for 170 countries representing 99% of the global population. An estimated 37.9 million (uncertainty bounds 32.7-44.0 million) people were living with HIV in 2018. There were 1.7 million (1.4-2.3 million) new infections and 770 000 (570 000-1.1 million) AIDS-related deaths. New HIV infections declined in five of eight regions and AIDS deaths were declining in six of eight regions between 2010 and 2018. CONCLUSION: The estimates demonstrate progress towards ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030, however, through 2018 declines in new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths were not sufficient to meet global interim targets. The UNAIDS estimates have made important contributions to guide decisions about the HIV response at global, regional and country level.
背景:全球目标呼吁在 2010 年至 2020 年期间将新感染艾滋病毒人数和艾滋病死亡人数减少 75%。艾滋病署支持各国衡量实现这些目标的进展情况。2019 年,这一努力产生了经修订的国家、区域和全球估计数,反映了最佳现有数据。
方法:使用 Spectrum 软件为 170 个国家制定了估计数。来自 151 个国家的国家小组直接制定了艾滋病毒估计数,另外 19 个国家的估计数则由艾滋病署根据现有证据制定。107 个国家采用了基于哨点监测、常规收集的艾滋病毒检测和住户调查中艾滋病毒流行率数据的模型,其余 63 个国家则采用了基于艾滋病毒病例监测和/或报告的艾滋病死亡人数的模型。模型参数由艾滋病署估计、建模和预测问题参考小组提供。
结果:艾滋病毒估计数可用于代表全球人口 99%的 170 个国家。2018 年,估计有 3790 万人(不确定区间为 3270 万至 4400 万人)感染艾滋病毒。当年有 170 万人(140 万至 230 万人)新感染艾滋病毒,77 万人(57 万至 110 万人)与艾滋病相关的死亡。2010 年至 2018 年期间,八个区域中有五个区域的新艾滋病毒感染人数下降,六个区域中的艾滋病死亡人数下降。
结论:这些估计数表明,在 2030 年之前结束艾滋病流行的目标取得了进展,但截至 2018 年,新感染艾滋病毒人数和艾滋病相关死亡人数的下降速度不足以实现全球中期目标。艾滋病署的估计数为指导全球、区域和国家各级艾滋病毒应对工作的决策做出了重要贡献。
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