Soshi Takahiro, Nagamine Mitsue, Fukuda Emiko, Takeuchi Ai
Graduate School of Frontier Biosciences, Osaka University, Osaka, Japan.
Institute for Liberal Arts, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan.
Front Psychol. 2019 Jul 9;10:1544. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2019.01544. eCollection 2019.
In real-life circumstances, people occasionally require making forced decisions when encountering unpredictable events and situations that yield socially and privately unfavorable consequences. In order to prevent future negative consequences, it is beneficial to successfully predict future decision-making behaviors based on various types of information, including behavioral traits and/or psychological states. For this prospective purpose, the present study used the Iowa Gambling Task, which simulates multiple aspects of real-life decision-making processes, such as choice preference, selection and evaluation of output feedback, and investigated how anxiety profiles predict decision-making performances under conditions with different temporal pressures on task execution. To conduct a temporally causal analysis, we assessed the trait and state anxiety profiles of 33 young participants prior to the task and analyzed their subsequent decision-making performances. We separated two disadvantageous card decks with high rewards and losses into high- and middle-risk decks, and calculated local performance indexes for decision-making immediately after salient penalty events for the high-risk deck in addition to traditional global performance indexes concerning overall trial outcomes such as final winnings and net scores. For global decision-making, higher trait anxiety predicted more risky choices solely in the self-paced condition without temporal pressure. For local decision-making, state anxiety predicted risk-taking performances differently in the self- and forced-paced conditions. In the self-paced condition, higher state anxiety predicted higher risk-avoidance. In the forced-paced condition, higher state anxiety predicted more frequent choices of the middle-risk deck. These findings suggest not only that pre-specified anxiety profiles can effectively predict future decision-making behaviors under different temporal pressures, but also newly indicate that behavioral mechanisms for moderate risk-taking under an emergent condition should be focused on to effectively prevent future unfavorable consequences when actually encountering negative events.
在现实生活中，人们在遇到不可预测的事件和情况并产生社会和个人层面不利后果时，偶尔需要做出被迫的决定。为了防止未来出现负面后果，基于包括行为特征和/或心理状态在内的各种信息成功预测未来的决策行为是有益的。出于这一前瞻性目的，本研究使用了爱荷华赌博任务，该任务模拟了现实生活决策过程的多个方面，如选择偏好、输出反馈的选择和评估，并研究了焦虑特征如何在任务执行存在不同时间压力的条件下预测决策表现。为了进行时间因果分析，我们在任务前评估了33名年轻参与者的特质焦虑和状态焦虑特征，并分析了他们随后的决策表现。我们将两个有高回报和高损失的不利纸牌组分为高风险和中等风险纸牌组，除了计算关于总体试验结果（如最终赢钱和净得分）的传统全局表现指标外，还计算了高风险纸牌组显著惩罚事件后立即进行决策的局部表现指标。对于全局决策，仅在没有时间压力的自定节奏条件下，较高的特质焦虑预测了更多的冒险选择。对于局部决策，状态焦虑在自定节奏和强制节奏条件下对冒险表现的预测不同。在自定节奏条件下，较高的状态焦虑预测了更高的风险规避。在强制节奏条件下，较高的状态焦虑预测了更频繁地选择中等风险纸牌组。这些发现不仅表明预先指定的焦虑特征可以有效地预测不同时间压力下的未来决策行为，还新表明在实际遇到负面事件时，应关注紧急情况下适度冒险的行为机制，以有效防止未来的不利后果。
