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基于注册的队列研究:从常规临床实践中的自我报告跌倒预测骨折。

Fracture prediction from self-reported falls in routine clinical practice: a registry-based cohort study.

机构信息

Department of Medicine (C5121), University of Manitoba, 409 Tache Avenue, Winnipeg, MB, R2H 2A6, Canada.

McGill University, Montreal, Canada.

出版信息

Osteoporos Int. 2019 Nov;30(11):2195-2203. doi: 10.1007/s00198-019-05106-3. Epub 2019 Aug 2.


DOI:10.1007/s00198-019-05106-3
PMID:31372711
Abstract

UNLABELLED: A simple question construct regarding number of falls in the previous year, ascertained by a single question, was strongly associated with incident fractures in routine clinical practice using a population-based dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) registry. INTRODUCTION: There is conflicting evidence from research cohorts that falls independently increase fracture risk. We examined the independent effects of falls on subsequent fractures in a large clinical registry of bone mineral density (BMD) results for the Province of Manitoba, Canada that has been systematically collecting self-reported falls information since September 1, 2012. METHODS: The study population consisted of 24,943 women and men aged 40 years and older (mean age 65.5 ± 10.2 years) with fracture probability assessment (FRAX), self-reported falls for the previous year (categorized as none, 1, 2, or > 3) and fracture outcomes. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95 confidence intervals (CI) for time to fracture were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: During mean observation time of 2.7 ± 1.0 years, 863 (3.5%) sustained one or more major osteoporotic fractures (MOF), 212 (0.8%) sustained a hip fracture, and 1210 (4.9%) sustained any incident fracture. Compared with no falls in the previous year (referent), there was a gradient of increasing risk for fracture with increasing number of falls (all P < 0.001). Results showed minimal attenuation with covariate adjustment. When adjusted for baseline fracture probability (FRAX score with BMD) the HR for MOF increased from 1.49 (95% CI 1.25-1.78) for one fall to 1.74 (1.33-2.27) for two falls to 2.62 (2.06-3.34) for ≥ 3 falls. HRs were similar for any incident fracture and slightly greater for prediction of hip fracture, reaching 3.41 (95% CI 2.19-5.31) for ≥ 3 previous falls. CONCLUSIONS: Self-report number of falls in the previous year is strongly associated with incident fracture risk in the routine clinical practice setting, and this risk is independent of age, sex, BMD, and baseline fracture probability. Moreover, there is dose-response with multiple falls (up to a maximum of 3) conferring greater risk than a single fall.

摘要

目的:使用基于人群的双能 X 射线吸收法(DXA)登记处,基于一个简单的关于前一年跌倒次数的问题构建,通过一个问题确定,该问题与常规临床实践中的偶发性骨折强烈相关。

背景:来自研究队列的证据相互矛盾,表明跌倒独立增加骨折风险。我们检查了跌倒对加拿大马尼托巴省一个大型骨密度(BMD)结果临床登记处中随后骨折的独立影响,该登记处自 2012 年 9 月 1 日以来一直在系统地收集自我报告的跌倒信息。

方法:研究人群由 24943 名年龄在 40 岁及以上(平均年龄 65.5±10.2 岁)的女性和男性组成,他们接受了骨折概率评估(FRAX)、前一年的自我报告跌倒情况(分为无、1、2 或 >3 次)和骨折结果。使用 Cox 比例风险模型估计调整后的风险比(HR)和 95%置信区间(CI),以评估骨折发生时间。

结果:在平均 2.7±1.0 年的观察期间,863 人(3.5%)发生了 1 次或多次主要骨质疏松性骨折(MOF),212 人(0.8%)发生了髋部骨折,1210 人(4.9%)发生了任何偶发性骨折。与前一年无跌倒(参考)相比,跌倒次数的增加与骨折风险的增加呈梯度关系(均 P<0.001)。结果表明,在进行了协变量调整后,其变化幅度很小。当调整为基线骨折概率(FRAX 评分与 BMD)时,MOF 的 HR 从 1 次跌倒的 1.49(95%CI 1.25-1.78)增加到 2 次跌倒的 1.74(1.33-2.27),到≥3 次跌倒的 2.62(2.06-3.34)。对于任何偶发性骨折,HR 相似,对于髋部骨折的预测稍高,≥3 次先前跌倒的 HR 达到 3.41(95%CI 2.19-5.31)。

结论:前一年的自我报告跌倒次数与常规临床实践中偶发性骨折风险密切相关,且这种风险独立于年龄、性别、BMD 和基线骨折概率。此外,跌倒次数(最多 3 次)与风险呈剂量反应关系,多次跌倒比单次跌倒的风险更大。

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[8]
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本文引用的文献

[1]
Performance of FRAX in Women with Breast Cancer Initiating Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy: A Registry-Based Cohort Study.

J Bone Miner Res. 2019-5-9

[2]
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Lancet. 2019-1-26

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Osteoporos Int. 2017-10-24

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Validation of FRAX and the impact of self-reported falls among elderly in a general population: the HUNT study, Norway.

Osteoporos Int. 2017-7-1

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Objectively Verified Parental Hip Fracture Is an Independent Risk Factor for Fracture: a Linkage Analysis of 478,792 Parents and 261,705 Offspring.

J Bone Miner Res. 2016-9

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