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一项对队列研究中既往跌倒与后续骨折风险的荟萃分析。

A meta-analysis of previous falls and subsequent fracture risk in cohort studies.

机构信息

Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia.

Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.

出版信息

Osteoporos Int. 2024 Mar;35(3):469-494. doi: 10.1007/s00198-023-07012-1. Epub 2024 Jan 17.


DOI:10.1007/s00198-023-07012-1
PMID:38228807
Abstract

UNLABELLED: The relationship between self-reported falls and fracture risk was estimated in an international meta-analysis of individual-level data from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were associated with an increased fracture risk in women and men and should be considered as an additional risk factor in the FRAX® algorithm. INTRODUCTION: Previous falls are a well-documented risk factor for subsequent fracture but have not yet been incorporated into the FRAX algorithm. The aim of this study was to evaluate, in an international meta-analysis, the association between previous falls and subsequent fracture risk and its relation to sex, age, duration of follow-up, and bone mineral density (BMD). METHODS: The resource comprised 906,359 women and men (66.9% female) from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were uniformly defined as any fall occurring during the previous year in 43 cohorts; the remaining three cohorts had a different question construct. The association between previous falls and fracture risk (any clinical fracture, osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture) was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and each sex, followed by random-effects meta-analyses of the weighted beta coefficients. RESULTS: Falls in the past year were reported in 21.4% of individuals. During a follow-up of 9,102,207 person-years, 87,352 fractures occurred of which 19,509 were hip fractures. A previous fall was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture both in women (hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-1.51) and men (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.41-1.67). The HRs were of similar magnitude for osteoporotic, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture. Sex significantly modified the association between previous fall and fracture risk, with predictive values being higher in men than in women (e.g., for major osteoporotic fracture, HR 1.53 (95% CI 1.27-1.84) in men vs. HR 1.32 (95% CI 1.20-1.45) in women, P for interaction = 0.013). The HRs associated with previous falls decreased with age in women and with duration of follow-up in men and women for most fracture outcomes. There was no evidence of an interaction between falls and BMD for fracture risk. Subsequent risk for a major osteoporotic fracture increased with each additional previous fall in women and men. CONCLUSIONS: A previous self-reported fall confers an increased risk of fracture that is largely independent of BMD. Previous falls should be considered as an additional risk factor in future iterations of FRAX to improve fracture risk prediction.

摘要

目的:本国际荟萃分析旨在使用来自 46 项前瞻性队列的个体水平数据,评估自我报告的跌倒与骨折风险之间的关系。既往跌倒与女性和男性的骨折风险增加相关,应被视为 FRAX®算法的另一个危险因素。

简介:既往跌倒已被充分证实为随后发生骨折的危险因素,但尚未纳入 FRAX 算法。本研究的目的是通过国际荟萃分析评估既往跌倒与后续骨折风险之间的关联及其与性别、年龄、随访时间和骨密度(BMD)的关系。

方法:该资源包含来自 46 项前瞻性队列的 906359 名女性和男性(66.9%为女性)。既往跌倒在 43 项队列中被统一定义为过去 1 年中的任何跌倒;其余 3 项队列使用不同的问题构建。使用每个队列和每个性别的泊松回归模型扩展来评估既往跌倒与骨折风险(任何临床骨折、骨质疏松性骨折、主要骨质疏松性骨折和髋部骨折)之间的关联,然后对加权β系数进行随机效应荟萃分析。

结果:21.4%的个体报告过去 1 年中有跌倒。在 910227 人年的随访期间,发生了 87352 例骨折,其中 19509 例为髋部骨折。既往跌倒与女性(风险比(HR)1.42,95%置信区间(CI)1.33-1.51)和男性(HR 1.53,95% CI 1.41-1.67)的任何临床骨折风险显著增加相关。骨质疏松性、主要骨质疏松性骨折和髋部骨折的 HR 相似。性别显著改变了既往跌倒与骨折风险之间的关联,男性的预测值高于女性(例如,对于主要骨质疏松性骨折,男性的 HR 为 1.53(95% CI 1.27-1.84),女性的 HR 为 1.32(95% CI 1.20-1.45),P 交互 = 0.013)。与既往跌倒相关的 HR 随女性年龄和男性及女性随访时间的增加而降低。对于大多数骨折结局,没有证据表明跌倒与 BMD 之间存在交互作用。女性和男性中,每次既往跌倒都会增加发生主要骨质疏松性骨折的后续风险。

结论:自我报告的既往跌倒会增加骨折风险,这在很大程度上与 BMD 无关。既往跌倒应被视为 FRAX 未来迭代中的另一个危险因素,以提高骨折风险预测。

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Arch Osteoporos. 2025-9-8

[2]
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[3]
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Osteoporos Int. 2025-8-6

[4]
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Osteoporos Int. 2025-6-24

[5]
Exercise in the Prevention of Age-Related Fragility Fractures (Narrative Review).

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[6]
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Osteoporos Int. 2025-5-30

[7]
Development and validation of a predictive model for refracture risk in elderly individuals with osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture: a retrospective study in China.

Aging Clin Exp Res. 2025-5-26

[8]
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Osteoporos Int. 2025-5-7

[9]
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[10]
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本文引用的文献

[1]
Effect of Treadmill Perturbation-Based Balance Training on Fall Rates in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

JAMA Netw Open. 2023-4-3

[2]
Adjusting conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of prior falls in the preceding year.

Osteoporos Int. 2023-3

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Front Sports Act Living. 2022-10-6

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J Am Geriatr Soc. 2022-11

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Osteoporos Int. 2022-11

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Update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX: a systematic review of potential cohorts and analysis plan.

Osteoporos Int. 2022-10

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J Bone Miner Res. 2022-1

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Arch Osteoporos. 2020-8-3

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MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2020-7-10

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A Randomized Trial of a Multifactorial Strategy to Prevent Serious Fall Injuries.

N Engl J Med. 2020-7-9

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