Ballantyne H C
Office of Public Inquiries, Social Security Administration, Baltimore, Maryland 21235.
Soc Secur Bull. 1988 Jun;51(6):4-9.
This article presents the summary of the 1988 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust Funds. It summarizes the financial condition and actuarial status of the OASDI program based on the alternative projections. The long-range 75-year estimates indicate that, under the intermediate (II-A and II-B) assumptions, the OASDI program will experience about three decades of positive annual balances, with continuing annual deficits thereafter. The positive balances in the first part of the 75-year projection period nearly offset the later deficits, so that the program, as a whole is in close actuarial balance. Over the long-range projection period, the OASDI program has an actuarial deficit of 0.58 percent of taxable payroll, based on the intermediate alternative II-B assumptions and calculated on a level-financing basis. The DI program by itself, however, is not in close actuarial balance for the next 75 years. The actuarial deficit for the DI program could be remedied by a small reallocation of the contribution rate from OASI to DI, in such a way that the OASI program would remain in close actuarial balance. Although the Trustees are not recommending such a reallocation, they note that the financial condition of the DI program will need to be carefully monitored.
本文介绍了1988年老年、遗属及残疾保险(OASDI)信托基金董事会年度报告的摘要。它基于不同的预测总结了OASDI计划的财务状况和精算状况。长期的75年估计表明,在中间(II-A和II-B)假设下,OASDI计划将经历约三十年的年度收支盈余,此后将持续出现年度赤字。75年预测期前半部分的盈余几乎抵消了后期的赤字,因此该计划总体上处于精算收支平衡状态。在长期预测期内,根据中间替代方案II-B假设并按均衡融资基础计算,OASDI计划的精算赤字占应纳税工资的0.58%。然而,仅残疾保险(DI)计划在未来75年内并非处于精算收支平衡状态。通过将缴费率从老年保险(OASI)向DI进行少量重新分配,可以弥补DI计划的精算赤字,同时使OASI计划保持精算收支平衡。尽管董事会不建议进行这种重新分配,但他们指出,DI计划的财务状况需要仔细监测。