Ballantyne H C
Soc Secur Bull. 1983 Oct;46(10):3-8.
This article summarizes the current financial and actuarial status of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program. The data presented are from the 1983 Trustees Report for the program following enactment of the Social Security Amendments of 1983. The actuarial estimates show that benefits can be paid on time throughout the 1980's and for many years thereafter. However, trust fund levels are projected to be relatively low through 1987, and the program could again experience financial difficulties in the near future if economic conditions become worse than anticipated under the pessimistic Alternative III assumptions. After 1987, the program's ability to withstand economic downturns is projected to improve. On the basis of intermediate assumptions, the OASDI program is now in long-range actuarial balance. This actuarial balance reflects substantial year-by-year surpluses during the first half of the 75-year projection period that slightly outweigh substantial deficits later on.
本文总结了老年、遗属和伤残保险（OASDI）计划目前的财务和精算状况。所呈现的数据来自1983年该计划的受托人报告，该报告是在1983年社会保障修正案颁布之后发布的。精算估计表明，在整个20世纪80年代及之后的许多年里，福利都能够按时支付。然而，预计到1987年信托基金水平相对较低，如果经济状况比悲观的替代方案III假设下预期的更糟，该计划在不久的将来可能会再次面临财务困难。1987年之后，预计该计划抵御经济衰退的能力将会提高。基于中间假设，OASDI计划目前处于长期精算平衡状态。这种精算平衡反映了在75年预测期的前半段有大量逐年盈余，这些盈余略大于后期的大量赤字。
