Ballantyne H C
Soc Secur Bull. 1985 Jun;48(6):27-31.
This article summarizes the current financial and actuarial status of the old-age, survivors, and disability insurance (OASDI) program, as shown in the 1985 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees. The Trustees note that the combined assets of the OASI and DI programs will be sufficient to pay OASDI benefits on time well into the next century based on all four sets of economic and demographic assumptions. Based on the pessimistic assumptions, the DI program could become unable to pay benefits on time by the end of 1987, but this problem could be prevented by a reallocation of contribution rates between the OASI and DI programs. For the long range--the next 75 years--the Trustees estimate that the OASDI program is in close actuarial balance based on intermediate assumptions--that is, the average annual income rate is estimated to be between 95 percent and 105 percent of the average annual cost rate during that period. The long-range actuarial deficit based on the intermediate (Alternative II-B) assumptions represents about 3 percent of the average annual cost rate for the program.
本文总结了养老、遗属和残疾保险(OASDI)计划当前的财务和精算状况,如1985年受托人委员会年度报告所示。受托人指出,根据所有四组经济和人口假设,老年和遗属保险(OASI)计划与残疾保险(DI)计划的合并资产将足以在下个世纪很长一段时间内按时支付OASDI福利。根据悲观假设,DI计划可能在1987年底前无法按时支付福利,但通过在OASI和DI计划之间重新分配缴费率,可以防止这个问题。从长期来看——未来75年——受托人估计,根据中间假设,OASDI计划处于精算收支接近平衡的状态,也就是说,在此期间平均年利率估计为平均年成本率的95%至105%。基于中间(替代方案II-B)假设的长期精算赤字约占该计划平均年成本率的3%。