Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Department of Politics and History, Brunel University London, London, UK.
Nat Hum Behav. 2019 Oct;3(10):1088-1095. doi: 10.1038/s41562-019-0665-8. Epub 2019 Aug 5.
How do 'people power' movements succeed when modest proportions of the population participate? Here we propose that the effects of social movements increase as they gain momentum. We approximate a simple law drawn from physics: momentum equals mass times velocity (p = mv). We propose that the momentum of dissent is a product of participation (mass) and the number of protest events in a week (velocity). We test this simple physical proposition against panel data on the potential effects of movement momentum on irregular leader exit in African countries between 1990 and 2014, using a variety of estimation techniques. Our findings show that social movements potentially compensate for relatively modest popular support by concentrating their activities in time, thus increasing their disruptive capacity. Notably, these findings also provide a straightforward way for dissidents to easily quantify their coercive potential by assessing their participation rates and increased concentration of their activities over time.
当人口中的一小部分参与时，“人民力量”运动如何取得成功？在这里，我们提出，随着社会运动的发展，其效果会增强。我们从物理学中得出一个简单的定律：动量等于质量乘以速度（p=mv）。我们提出，异议的动力是参与度（质量）和一周内抗议活动次数（速度）的乘积。我们使用各种估计技术，根据 1990 年至 2014 年期间非洲国家运动动力对非常规领导人离职的潜在影响的面板数据，对这一简单的物理命题进行了检验。我们的研究结果表明，社会运动可以通过集中活动时间来弥补相对较小的民众支持，从而提高其破坏能力。值得注意的是，这些发现还为异议人士提供了一种简单的方法，通过评估他们的参与率和随着时间的推移活动的集中程度，轻松量化他们的强制潜力。
