Sydiq Tareq
Zentrum für Konfliktforschung, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Ketzerbach 11, 35032 Marburg, Deutschland.
Z Friedens Konfliktforsch. 2020;9(2):351-362. doi: 10.1007/s42597-020-00047-9. Epub 2020 Oct 30.
Protest movements centered around public spaces emerged globally last year, in Hong Kong, South America, Iran or during the Arab Spring 2.0. While some could already achieve successes or consolidate themselves in 2019, most were hoping to continue pressuring governments and building momentum in 2020. The global pandemic squandered these hopes rapidly: collective decision making, still in the domain of governments, became a crucial factor in fighting the crisis, and protest movements as independent actors did not have a direct response. Simultaneously, public space as an arena for conflict articulation became inaccessible due to anti-pandemic efforts. Protestors were thus driven out of the center of public spaces and into the periphery, where they employed decentralized techniques in order to maintain their mobilization and to compete with state institutions in offering policy choices regarding anti-pandemic efforts. While limiting repertoires of protest movements, new conflict arenas allow them to sustain mobilization for future protest movements and continue challenging state actors. This period of limited protest activities can be used by governments, to accumulate political capital from efficient anti-pandemic policies and to foster cooperations with protesters. Unless they solve underlying causes of protests, however, protest movements will merely delay their activites to a time after the pandemic.
去年,以公共场所为中心的抗议运动在全球各地兴起,包括香港、南美、伊朗,以及在“阿拉伯之春2.0”期间。虽然有些抗议运动在2019年就已取得成功或得以巩固,但大多数都希望在2020年继续向政府施压并积聚势头。全球疫情迅速让这些希望破灭:集体决策仍由政府主导,这成为抗击危机的关键因素,而作为独立行动者的抗议运动却没有直接应对之策。与此同时,由于抗疫举措,作为冲突表达场所的公共场所变得无法进入。抗议者因此被赶出公共场所的中心,进入边缘地带,在那里他们采用分散化的技巧来维持动员,并在抗疫政策选择方面与国家机构展开竞争。新的冲突场所虽然限制了抗议运动的手段,但却使它们能够维持未来抗议运动的动员,并继续挑战国家行为体。政府可以利用这段抗议活动受限的时期,从有效的抗疫政策中积累政治资本,并促进与抗议者的合作。然而,除非政府解决抗议活动的根本原因,否则抗议运动只会将其活动推迟到疫情过后的某个时候。