Department of Zoology, Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Vanemuise 46, EE-51005, Tartu, Estonia.
Department of Zoology, Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Vanemuise 46, EE-51005, Tartu, Estonia.
J Environ Manage. 2019 Nov 15;250:109439. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109439. Epub 2019 Sep 6.
Ecosystem restoration is gaining political and economic support worldwide, but its exact targets and costs often remain unclear. A key issue, both for predicting restoration success and assessing the costs, is the uncertainty of post-restoration development of the ecosystem. A specific combination of uncertainties emerges when ecosystem restoration would negatively affect pre-restoration species conservation values. Such dilemma appears to be common, but largely ignored in restoration planning; for example, in historically degraded forests, wetlands and grasslands that provide novel habitats for some threatened species. We present a framework of linked options for resolving the dilemma, and exemplify its application in extensive mire restoration in Estonia. The broad options include: redistributing the risks by timing; relocating restoration sites; modifying restoration techniques; and managing for future habitats of the species involved. In Estonia, we assessed these options based on spatially explicit mapping of expected future states of the ecosystem, their uncertainty, and the distribution of species at risk. Such planning documentation, combined with follow-up monitoring and experimentation, can be used for adaptive management, by funding organizations and for academic research.
生态系统恢复在全球范围内得到了政治和经济的支持，但它的确切目标和成本往往不明确。对于预测恢复的成功和评估成本来说，一个关键问题是生态系统恢复后发展的不确定性。当生态系统恢复会对恢复前的物种保护价值产生负面影响时，就会出现这种不确定性的特殊组合。这种困境似乎很常见，但在恢复规划中基本上被忽视了；例如，在历史上退化的森林、湿地和草原中，为一些受威胁的物种提供了新的栖息地。我们提出了一个解决这一困境的关联选择框架，并以爱沙尼亚大规模沼泽地恢复为例来说明其应用。广泛的选择包括：通过时间分配来分散风险；重新选址；修改恢复技术；以及管理所涉及物种的未来栖息地。在爱沙尼亚，我们根据对生态系统未来状态、其不确定性以及濒危物种分布的空间明确映射，评估了这些选择。这种规划文件，结合后续监测和实验，可以为资助组织和学术研究提供自适应管理。
