Department of Psychology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States.
Yale Law School, New Haven, CT 06511, United States.
Cognition. 2020 Jan;194:104057. doi: 10.1016/j.cognition.2019.104057. Epub 2019 Sep 26.
When solving problems, like making predictions or choices, people often "sample" possibilities into mind. Here, we consider whether there is structure to the kinds of thoughts people sample by default-that is, without an explicit goal. Across three experiments we found that what comes to mind by default are samples from a probability distribution that combines what people think is likely and what they think is good. Experiment 1 found that the first quantities that come to mind for everyday behaviors and events are quantities that combine what is average and ideal. Experiment 2 found, in a manipulated context, that the distribution of numbers that come to mind resemble the mathematical product of the presented statistical distribution and a (softmax-transformed) prescriptive distribution. Experiment 3 replicated these findings in a visual domain. These results provide insight into the process generating people's conscious thoughts and invite new questions about the value of thinking about things that are both likely and good.
当人们解决问题,如进行预测或选择时,他们通常会“抽样”出各种可能性。在这里,我们考虑人们默认情况下(即没有明确目标)抽样的思维种类是否存在结构。通过三个实验,我们发现默认情况下出现在人们脑海中的是一种将他们认为可能的和他们认为好的东西结合在一起的概率分布的样本。实验 1 发现,对于日常行为和事件,首先出现在人们脑海中的是将平均值和理想值结合在一起的数量。实验 2 在人为控制的环境下发现,出现在人们脑海中的数字分布类似于呈现的统计分布和(softmax 转换后的)规定性分布的数学乘积。实验 3 在视觉领域复制了这些发现。这些结果为人们有意识的思维过程提供了深入的了解,并为思考既有可能性又有好处的事物的价值提出了新的问题。