National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, University of Maryland, 1 Park Place, Annapolis, MD, 21401, USA.
Ecology and Environmental Sciences program, University of Maine, 107 Nutting Hall, Orono, ME, 04469, USA.
Ecol Lett. 2019 Dec;22(12):2039-2048. doi: 10.1111/ele.13384. Epub 2019 Sep 15.
Changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather may introduce new threats to species that are already under stress from gradual habitat loss and climate change. We provide a probabilistic framework that quantifies potential threats by applying concepts from ecological resilience to single populations. Our approach uses computation to compare disturbance-impacted projections to a population's normal range of variation, quantifying the full range of potential impacts. We illustrate this framework with projection models for coastal birds, which are commonly depicted as vulnerable to disturbances, especially hurricanes and oil spills. We found that populations of coastal specialists are resilient to extreme disturbances, with high resistance to the effects of short-term reductions in vital rates and recovery within 20 years. Applying the general framework presented here across disturbance-prone species and ecosystems would improve understanding of population resilience and generate specific projections of resilience that are needed for effective conservation planning.
极端天气的频率和严重程度的变化可能会给那些已经因为栖息地逐渐丧失和气候变化而处于压力之下的物种带来新的威胁。我们提供了一个概率框架，通过将生态弹性的概念应用于单一种群来量化潜在威胁。我们的方法使用计算将受干扰的预测与种群的正常变化范围进行比较，量化了潜在影响的全部范围。我们用沿海鸟类的预测模型来说明这个框架，这些鸟类通常被描绘为容易受到干扰，尤其是飓风和石油泄漏的影响。我们发现，沿海专家种群对极端干扰具有弹性，对关键率短期降低的影响具有高抵抗力，并且在 20 年内能够恢复。在易受干扰的物种和生态系统中应用这里提出的一般框架将提高对种群弹性的理解，并产生有效的保护规划所需的具体弹性预测。
