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利用 APSIM 模型评估摩洛哥中部半干旱地区小麦（Triticum aestivum）的适应性。

Wheat (Triticum aestivum) adaptability evaluation in a semi-arid region of Central Morocco using APSIM model.

机构信息

Center of Excellence for Soil and Fertilizer Research in Africa (CESFRA), AgroBioSciences (AgBS), Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P), 43150, Ben Guerir, Morocco.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2021 Nov 30;11(1):23173. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-02668-3.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-021-02668-3
PMID:34848819
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8632900/
Abstract

In this study, we evaluated the suitability of semi-arid region of Central Morocco for wheat production using Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) considering weather, soil properties and crop management production factors. Model calibration was carried out using data collected from field trials. A quantitative statistics, i.e., root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and index of agreement (d) were used in model performance evaluation. Furthermore, series of simulations were performed to simulate the future scenarios of wheat productivity based on climate projection; the optimum sowing date under water deficit condition and selection of appropriate wheat varieties. The study showed that the performance of the model was fairly accurate as judged by having RMSE = 0.13, NSE = 0.95, and d = 0.98. The realization of future climate data projection and their integration into the APSIM model allowed us to obtain future scenarios of wheat yield that vary between 0 and 2.33 t/ha throughout the study period. The simulated result confirmed that the yield obtained from plots seeded between 25 October and 25 November was higher than that of sown until 05 January. From the several varieties tested, Hartog, Sunstate, Wollaroi, Batten and Sapphire were yielded comparatively higher than the locale variety Marzak. In conclusion, APSIM-Wheat model could be used as a promising tool to identify the best management practices such as determining the sowing date and selection of crop variety based on the length of the crop cycle for adapting and mitigating climate change.

摘要

在本研究中，我们使用农业生产系统模拟器（APSIM）评估了摩洛哥中部半干旱地区的小麦生产适宜性，考虑了天气、土壤特性和作物管理等生产因素。通过使用田间试验收集的数据对模型进行了校准。使用定量统计，即均方根误差（RMSE）、纳什-苏特克里夫效率（NSE）和吻合度指数（d），对模型性能进行了评估。此外，还进行了一系列模拟，以根据气候预测模拟小麦生产力的未来情景；在缺水条件下确定最佳播种日期和选择合适的小麦品种。研究表明，该模型的性能相当准确，RMSE 为 0.13、NSE 为 0.95、d 为 0.98。未来气候数据预测的实现及其与 APSIM 模型的集成，使我们能够获得整个研究期间小麦产量在 0 到 2.33 吨/公顷之间的未来情景。模拟结果证实，10 月 25 日至 11 月 25 日播种的地块产量高于 1 月 5 日播种的地块。在所测试的几个品种中，Hartog、Sunstate、Wollaroi、Batten 和 Sapphire 的产量明显高于当地品种 Marzak。总之，APSIM-Wheat 模型可用作一种很有前途的工具，用于确定最佳管理实践，例如根据作物周期的长短确定播种日期和选择作物品种，以适应和减轻气候变化的影响。

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