Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research/Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Onogawa 16-2, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki 305-0053, Japan.
Regional Environmental Renovation Section, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Fukushima Branch, Fukasaku 10-2, Miharu, Tamura District, Fukushima 963-7700, Japan.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Nov 20;692:903-916. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.204. Epub 2019 Jul 16.
Land abandonment, e.g. agricultural land abandonment, can result in various social and ecological impacts. It would thus be helpful if the extent and spatial pattern of future land abandonment could be projected. However, the trajectory of future land abandonment generally depends on various factors, including biophysical conditions and future changes in socioeconomic indicators in the area. In this study, we developed a general framework for a scenario-based land abandonment projection, featuring a coupled regional economic and spatially explicit land change modeling approach. We applied this framework in selected municipalities in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, under two socioeconomic development scenarios (2014-2050): low population and economic growth (LL scenario) and high population and economic growth (HH scenario). The case study results, which are also visualized through a set of hot spot maps, revealed that agricultural land abandonment would be more intense under the HH scenario due to the much higher future decline in farmer population driven by the shift in people's employment and main source of livelihood. Under the LL scenario, residential and urban land abandonment would be more profound because of the much higher future decline in total population. In general, our results provide insights into some plausible future socioeconomic changes, their interplay and their consequent land abandonment in the case study area, which would be useful in the context of forward-looking adaptive development planning. The proposed framework can be applied to other case study areas.
土地弃置，例如农业土地弃置，可能会导致各种社会和生态影响。因此，如果能够预测未来土地弃置的程度和空间格局，将会很有帮助。然而，未来土地弃置的轨迹通常取决于各种因素，包括自然物理条件和该地区未来社会经济指标的变化。在本研究中，我们开发了一种基于情景的土地弃置预测的综合框架，其特点是采用了一种耦合的区域经济和空间显式土地变化建模方法。我们在日本福岛县的选定市町村应用了这一框架，针对两种社会经济发展情景（2014-2050 年）：人口和经济增长较低（LL 情景）和人口和经济增长较高（HH 情景）。通过一组热点图对案例研究结果进行了可视化，结果表明，由于人们就业和主要生计来源的转变导致未来农民人口大幅减少，HH 情景下农业土地弃置将更为严重。在 LL 情景下，由于总人口的未来下降幅度更大，住宅和城市土地弃置将更为严重。总的来说，我们的研究结果提供了一些可能的未来社会经济变化、它们的相互作用以及案例研究区相应的土地弃置情况的见解，这对于前瞻性的适应性发展规划是有用的。所提出的框架可以应用于其他案例研究区。
