Perpiña Castillo Carolina, Jacobs-Crisioni Chris, Diogo Vasco, Lavalle Carlo
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy.
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, Birmensdorf, CH-8903, Switzerland.
Environ Model Softw. 2021 Feb;136:104946. doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104946.
In the majority of EU Member States, agricultural land is expected to decrease not only due to land-use changes in favour of urban expansion and afforestation but also to land abandonment processes. The knowledge on location and extent of agricultural land abandonment is relevant for estimating local external effects and adapting policy interventions. Currently, multi-level land-use models are able to capture determined processes of demand-driven redevelopment. However, land abandonment is much more difficult to capture because of its more ambiguous definition and the lack of data on its spatial distribution. This paper presents a method to explicitly model agricultural abandonment as a choice of disinvestment, which in turn is embedded in a utility-based land-use modelling framework that projects land-use changes for the EU and the UK. Validation exercises using observed spatial distribution of abandoned farmland show that the proposed method allows to model abandonment with acceptable accuracy.
在大多数欧盟成员国，预计农业用地不仅会因有利于城市扩张和造林的土地利用变化而减少，还会因土地撂荒过程而减少。了解农业用地撂荒的位置和范围对于估算当地外部影响以及调整政策干预措施具有重要意义。目前，多层次土地利用模型能够捕捉需求驱动的再开发的特定过程。然而，由于土地撂荒的定义更为模糊且缺乏其空间分布数据，因此更难捕捉。本文提出了一种方法，将农业撂荒明确建模为一种撤资选择，进而将其嵌入基于效用的土地利用建模框架中，该框架可预测欧盟和英国的土地利用变化。利用观测到的废弃农田空间分布进行的验证练习表明，所提出的方法能够以可接受的精度对撂荒进行建模。
