Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research, University of Vienna, Rennweg 14, 1030, Vienna, Austria.
Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses, Gießergasse 6, 1090, Vienna, Austria.
Nat Commun. 2019 Sep 20;10(1):4293. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-12343-x.
Mountain plant species shift their elevational ranges in response to climate change. However, to what degree these shifts lag behind current climate change, and to what extent delayed extinctions and colonizations contribute to these shifts, are under debate. Here, we calculate extinction debt and colonization credit of 135 species from the European Alps by comparing species distribution models with 1576 re-surveyed plots. We find extinction debt in 60% and colonization credit in 38% of the species, and at least one of the two in 93%. This suggests that the realized niche of very few of the 135 species fully tracks climate change. As expected, extinction debts occur below and colonization credits occur above the optimum elevation of species. Colonization credits are more frequent in warmth-demanding species from lower elevations with lower dispersal capability, and extinction debts are more frequent in cold-adapted species from the highest elevations. Local extinctions hence appear to be already pending for those species which have the least opportunity to escape climate warming.
山地植物物种会根据气候变化改变其海拔范围。然而，这些变化滞后于当前气候变化的程度，以及延迟灭绝和迁移在多大程度上促成了这些变化，仍存在争议。在这里，我们通过将物种分布模型与 1576 个重新调查的样方进行比较，计算了来自阿尔卑斯山的 135 种物种的灭绝债务和迁移增益。我们发现，60%的物种存在灭绝债务，38%的物种存在迁移增益，至少有 93%的物种存在其中之一。这表明，在 135 种物种中，只有极少数物种的实际生态位完全跟踪气候变化。正如预期的那样，灭绝债务出现在物种最适海拔以下，而迁移增益出现在最适海拔以上。在来自低海拔地区的对温暖有需求、扩散能力较低的物种中，迁移增益更为常见，而在来自高海拔地区的适应寒冷的物种中，灭绝债务更为常见。因此，对于那些最没有机会逃避气候变暖的物种来说，局部灭绝似乎已经迫在眉睫。
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