Essl Franz, García-Rodríguez Adrián, Lenzner Bernd, Alexander Jake M, Capinha César, Gaüzère Pierre, Guisan Antoine, Kühn Ingolf, Lenoir Jonathan, Richardson David M, Rumpf Sabine B, Svenning Jens-Christian, Thuiller Wilfried, Zurell Damaris, Dullinger Stefan
Division of BioInvasions, Global Change & Macroecology, Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research University of Vienna Vienna Austria.
Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich Zurich Switzerland.
J Biogeogr. 2024 Jan;51(1):89-102. doi: 10.1111/jbi.14726. Epub 2023 Sep 28.
The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change-for example, gradual 'press' disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent 'pulse' disturbances such as extreme events-affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy.
人类世的特点是环境变化迅速，正在引发众多生物反应，包括那些影响物种空间分布的反应。滞后反应很常见，物种分布和群落因此被推向失衡状态。环境变化的特征——例如，气候变化导致的气温上升等渐进的“压力”干扰与极端事件等不频繁的“脉冲”干扰——如何影响反应的程度和生物群的恢复时间，目前尚未得到充分研究。人们也不太清楚广泛用于评估或预测物种对不断变化的环境条件反应的方法如何应对时间滞后。因此，目前尚不清楚在生物多样性评估、情景分析和模型中，物种分布的时间滞后在多大程度上得到了考虑；这对政策制定和保护科学都有影响。这篇观点文章反思了物种对环境变化的滞后反应，并讨论了对物种分布模型（SDMs）的潜在影响，SDMs是生物多样性建模中首选的工具。我们提出了一些方法，以便在校准这些模型时更好地考虑时间滞后，并减少它们在预测中的杠杆效应，从而改进生物多样性科学和政策。
