Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung 402, Taiwan.
Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei 11529, Taiwan.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Sep 22;16(19):3549. doi: 10.3390/ijerph16193549.
Ambient air pollution from energy use and other sources is a major environmental risk factor in the incidence and progression of serious diseases, such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. This study elucidates the health effects of energy consumption from air pollution in China based on multiple threshold effects of the population-weighted exposure to PM2.5 (fine particles less than 2.5 microns in diameter) on particle-related mortality rate. We firstly estimate the causal relationship between coal consumption and PM2.5 in China for 2004-2010 using a panel regression model. Panel threshold models are applied to access the non-linear relationships between PM2.5 and cause-specific mortality rates that indicate the health effects are dependent on the PM2.5 ranges. By combining these steps, we calculate the health impacts of coal consumption based on threshold effects of PM2.5. We find that a 1% coal consumption increase induces a 0.23% increase in PM2.5. A triple threshold effect is found between PM2.5 and cardiovascular mortality; for example, increasing PM2.5 exposure causes cardiovascular mortality rate to increase when PM2.5 lies in 17.7-21.6 μg/m3 and 21.6-34.3 μg/m3, with the estimated increments being 0.81% and 0.26%, respectively, corresponding to 1% PM2.5 increase. A single threshold effect of SO2 on respiratory mortality rate is identified and allows the estimation of the mortality effects of PM2.5 regarding the two regimes of SO2. Finally, we access the health impacts of coal consumption under specific estimated thresholds. This study provides a better understanding of sources contributing to related-air pollution mortality. The multi-threshold effect of PM2.5 could be considered for further applications in harmonizing emission standards in China and other developing countries.
能源使用和其他来源造成的大气环境污染是严重疾病（如心血管和呼吸道疾病）发病和恶化的一个主要环境风险因素。本研究基于 PM2.5（直径小于 2.5 微米的细颗粒物）人群加权暴露对颗粒物相关死亡率的多种门槛效应，阐明了中国能源消费造成的空气污染对健康的影响。我们首先使用面板回归模型估计了 2004-2010 年中国煤炭消费与 PM2.5 之间的因果关系。然后应用面板门槛模型来评估 PM2.5 与特定原因死亡率之间的非线性关系，这表明健康效应取决于 PM2.5 的范围。通过结合这些步骤，我们根据 PM2.5 的门槛效应计算了煤炭消费的健康影响。结果发现，煤炭消费增加 1%，会导致 PM2.5 增加 0.23%。PM2.5 与心血管病死亡率之间存在三重门槛效应；例如，当 PM2.5 处于 17.7-21.6 μg/m3 和 21.6-34.3 μg/m3 时，PM2.5 暴露增加会导致心血管病死亡率增加，估计增量分别为 0.81%和 0.26%，对应于 PM2.5 增加 1%。还确定了 SO2 对呼吸道病死亡率的单一门槛效应，并可以估计 PM2.5 在 SO2 两个水平下的死亡率效应。最后，我们根据特定的估计门槛来评估煤炭消费的健康影响。本研究有助于更好地了解导致相关空气污染死亡率的原因。PM2.5 的多门槛效应可考虑用于进一步协调中国和其他发展中国家的排放标准。
