Changsha Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 509, Wanjiali Second North Road, Kaifu District, Changsha City, 410001, Hunan, China.
BMC Pulm Med. 2022 Nov 12;22(1):416. doi: 10.1186/s12890-022-02216-3.
Previous studies have confirmed that exposure to fine particulate matter (PM) is associated with respiratory disease mortality. However, due to the differences in PM concentration, composition and population susceptibility within different regions, the estimates of the association between PM concentration and mortality are different. Moreover, few studies have examined the potential hazard of excessive PM exposure in terms of respiratory disease mortality.
Daily recorded data on meteorological indices, environmental pollutants, and causes of death data in Changsha from January 2015 to December 2018 were obtained. The potential relationship between PM concentrations and respiratory disease mortality was determined using distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM), which includes the relative risk (RR) and cumulative relative risk (CRR) of the lagged effect. The synergistic effects of other air pollutants were also considered.
A total of 8,825 cases of respiratory disease mortality occurred in Changsha between 2015 and 2018. The acute effect of PM concentration was associated with an increased risk of respiratory disease mortality. Regarding the lag specific effect, a 10 μg/m increase in PM concentration on respiratory disease mortality was statistically significant at lag day 0 and lag day 7 with a relative risk of 1.019 (95% CI 1.007- 1.031) and 1.013(95%CI: 1.002-1.024). As for the cumulative lag effect, a 4-day moving average of PM concentrations was significantly associated with a cumulative relative risk of 1.027 (95%CI: 1.011-1.031). The single-day lag effect and cumulative 4-day lag effect for male individuals were more significant than those observed in females. The effect of PM concentrations and respiratory disease mortality remained statistically significant in the multi-pollutant models (SO, NO, and O). A higher risk was observed in the cold season than in the warm season.
Our findings show a potential association between exposure to PM concentration and respiratory disease mortality in Changsha, with male individuals observed to have particularly higher risk.
先前的研究已经证实，细颗粒物（PM）暴露与呼吸道疾病死亡率有关。然而，由于不同地区的 PM 浓度、组成和人群易感性存在差异，因此 PM 浓度与死亡率之间的关联估计也不同。此外，很少有研究从呼吸道疾病死亡率的角度来考察过量 PM 暴露的潜在危害。
获取了 2015 年 1 月至 2018 年 12 月长沙市的气象指数、环境污染物和死因数据的逐日记录数据。使用分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）确定 PM 浓度与呼吸道疾病死亡率之间的潜在关系，该模型包括滞后效应的相对风险（RR）和累积相对风险（CRR）。还考虑了其他空气污染物的协同作用。
2015 年至 2018 年期间，长沙市共发生 8825 例呼吸道疾病死亡病例。PM 浓度的急性效应与呼吸道疾病死亡率的增加风险相关。关于滞后特定效应，PM 浓度每增加 10μg/m，在滞后 0 天和滞后 7 天的呼吸道疾病死亡率的相对风险分别为 1.019（95%置信区间 1.007-1.031）和 1.013（95%置信区间：1.002-1.024），具有统计学意义。至于累积滞后效应，PM 浓度的 4 天移动平均值与累积相对风险 1.027（95%置信区间：1.011-1.031）显著相关。男性个体的单日滞后效应和累积 4 天滞后效应比女性更显著。在多污染物模型（SO、NO 和 O）中，PM 浓度与呼吸道疾病死亡率之间的关系仍然具有统计学意义。在寒冷季节观察到的风险高于温暖季节。
我们的研究结果表明，长沙市 PM 浓度暴露与呼吸道疾病死亡率之间存在潜在关联，男性个体的风险尤其高。
