Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, 115# Donghu Road, Wuhan, 430071, China.
Duke Kunshan University, 8# Duke Avenue, Kunshan, 215316, China.
Sci Rep. 2017 Jan 13;7:40482. doi: 10.1038/srep40482.
Few studies have compared different methods when exploring the short-term effects of air pollutants on respiratory disease mortality in Wuhan, China. This study assesses the association between air pollutants and respiratory disease mortality with both time-series and time-stratified-case-crossover designs. The generalized additive model (GAM) and the conditional logistic regression model were used to assess the short-term effects of air pollutants on respiratory disease mortality. Stratified analyses were performed by age, sex, and diseases. A 10 μg/m increment in SO level was associated with an increase in relative risk for all respiratory disease mortality of 2.4% and 1.9% in the case-crossover and time-series analyses in single pollutant models, respectively. Strong evidence of an association between NO and daily respiratory disease mortality among men or people older than 65 years was found in the case-crossover study. There was a positive association between air pollutants and respiratory disease mortality in Wuhan, China. Both time-series and case-crossover analyses consistently reveal the association between three air pollutants and respiratory disease mortality. The estimates of association between air pollution and respiratory disease mortality from the case-crossover analysis displayed greater variation than that from the time-series analysis.
当探索中国武汉的短期空气污染对呼吸疾病死亡率的影响时，很少有研究比较不同的方法。本研究使用时间序列和时间分层病例交叉设计评估了空气污染物与呼吸疾病死亡率之间的关联。广义相加模型（GAM）和条件逻辑回归模型用于评估空气污染物对呼吸疾病死亡率的短期影响。分层分析按年龄、性别和疾病进行。在单污染物模型中，SO 水平每增加 10μg/m，病例交叉和时间序列分析中所有呼吸疾病死亡率的相对风险分别增加 2.4%和 1.9%。病例交叉研究发现，NO 与男性或 65 岁以上人群的每日呼吸疾病死亡率之间存在很强的关联。在中国武汉，空气污染物与呼吸疾病死亡率之间存在正相关关系。时间序列和病例交叉分析均一致显示三种空气污染物与呼吸疾病死亡率之间存在关联。病例交叉分析中空气污染与呼吸疾病死亡率之间关联的估计值比时间序列分析中的变化更大。
