Knopf Brigitte, Fuss Sabine, Hansen Gerrit, Creutzig Felix, Minx Jan, Edenhofer Ottmar
Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change Torgauer Straße 12-15 10829 Berlin Germany.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Change Impact Research Telegrafenberg 31 14473 Potsdam Germany.
Glob Chall. 2017 Jan 30;1(2):1600007. doi: 10.1002/gch2.201600007. eCollection 2017 Feb 27.
At the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris in 2015 ambitious targets for responding to the threat of climate change have been set: limiting global temperature increase to "well below 2 °C […] and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". However, calculating the CO budget for 1.5 °C, it becomes clear that there is nearly no room left for future emissions. Scenarios suggest that negative emission technologies will play an even more important role for 1.5 °C than they already play for 2 °C. Especially against this background the feasibility of the target(s) is hotly debated, but this debate does not initiate the next steps that are urgently needed. Already the negotiations have featured the move from targets to implementation which is needed in the coming decade. Most importantly, there is an urgent need to develop and implement instruments that incentivize the rapid decarbonization. Moreover, it needs to be worked out how to link the climate and development agenda and prevent a buildup of coal power causing lock-in effects. Short term entry points into climate policy should now be in the focus instead of the fruitless debate on the feasibility of targets.
2015年在巴黎举行的联合国气候变化大会设定了应对气候变化威胁的宏伟目标:将全球气温升幅限制在“远低于2摄氏度……并努力将气温升幅限制在1.5摄氏度”。然而,计算1.5摄氏度的碳排放预算时,很明显未来排放几乎没有空间了。情景分析表明,负排放技术在1.5摄氏度目标下将比在2摄氏度目标下发挥更重要的作用。特别是在这种背景下,目标的可行性引发了激烈辩论,但这场辩论并未开启迫切需要的后续步骤。谈判已经体现了从目标到实施的转变,而这是未来十年所必需的。最重要的是,迫切需要制定和实施激励快速脱碳的手段。此外,需要解决如何将气候与发展议程联系起来,并防止煤电积累导致锁定效应。气候政策的短期切入点现在应成为关注焦点,而非对目标可行性的无果辩论。