Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA-UAB) and Department of Anthropology, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; International Inequalities Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
Lancet Planet Health. 2023 Sep;7(9):e759-e769. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00174-2.
Scientists have raised concerns about whether high-income countries, with their high per-capita CO emissions, can decarbonise fast enough to meet their obligations under the Paris Agreement if they continue to pursue aggregate economic growth. Over the past decade, some countries have reduced their CO emissions while increasing their gross domestic product (absolute decoupling). Politicians and media have hailed this as green growth. In this empirical study, we aimed to assess whether these achievements are consistent with the Paris Agreement, and whether Paris-compliant decoupling is within reach.
We developed and implemented a novel approach to assess whether decoupling achievements in high-income countries are consistent with the Paris climate and equity goals. We identified 11 high-income countries that achieved absolute decoupling between 2013 and 2019. We assessed the achieved consumption-based CO emission reductions and decoupling rates of these countries against Paris-compliant rates, defined here as rates consistent with national fair-shares of the remaining global carbon budgets for a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1·5°C or 1·7°C (representing the lower [1·5°C] and upper [well below 2°C] bounds of the Paris target).
The emission reductions that high-income countries achieved through absolute decoupling fall far short of Paris-compliant rates. At the achieved rates, these countries would on average take more than 220 years to reduce their emissions by 95%, emitting 27 times their remaining 1·5°C fair-shares in the process. To meet their 1·5°C fair-shares alongside continued economic growth, decoupling rates would on average need to increase by a factor of ten by 2025.
The decoupling rates achieved in high-income countries are inadequate for meeting the climate and equity commitments of the Paris Agreement and cannot legitimately be considered green. If green is to be consistent with the Paris Agreement, then high-income countries have not achieved green growth, and are very unlikely to be able to achieve it in the future. To achieve Paris-compliant emission reductions, high-income countries will need to pursue post-growth demand-reduction strategies, reorienting the economy towards sufficiency, equity, and human wellbeing, while also accelerating technological change and efficiency improvements.
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科学家们担心，如果高收入国家继续追求总体经济增长，其人均 CO 排放量较高，能否在《巴黎协定》规定的义务范围内实现快速脱碳。在过去十年中，一些国家在增加国内生产总值（绝对脱钩）的同时减少了 CO 排放量。政治家和媒体称赞这是绿色增长。在这项实证研究中，我们旨在评估这些成就是否符合《巴黎协定》，以及是否可以实现符合《巴黎协定》的脱钩。
我们开发并实施了一种新方法来评估高收入国家的脱钩成就是否符合巴黎气候和公平目标。我们确定了 11 个在 2013 年至 2019 年间实现绝对脱钩的高收入国家。我们评估了这些国家实现的基于消费的 CO 减排量和脱钩率与符合《巴黎协定》的减排率之间的关系，这里定义的符合《巴黎协定》的减排率是指与剩余全球碳预算的国家公平份额一致的减排率，以实现将全球变暖限制在 1.5°C 或 1.7°C（代表巴黎目标的下限[1.5°C]和上限[远低于 2°C]）的 50%机会。
高收入国家通过绝对脱钩实现的减排量远远低于符合《巴黎协定》的减排率。按照实现的减排率，这些国家平均需要 220 多年的时间才能将排放量减少 95%，在此过程中排放的 CO2 量将是其剩余的 1.5°C 公平份额的 27 倍。为了在继续实现经济增长的同时实现其 1.5°C 的公平份额，脱钩率需要在 2025 年前平均提高 10 倍。
高收入国家实现的脱钩率不足以履行《巴黎协定》的气候和公平承诺，不能被合理地视为绿色。如果绿色要与《巴黎协定》保持一致，那么高收入国家就没有实现绿色增长，而且未来也不太可能实现。为了实现符合《巴黎协定》的减排目标，高收入国家将需要采取后增长需求减少战略，使经济向充足、公平和人类福祉方向重新定位，同时加速技术变革和提高效率。
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