Climate change impacts on banana yields around the world.

Nutritional diversity is a key element of food security. However, research on the effects of climate change on food security has, thus far, focussed on the major food grains, while the response of other crops, particularly those that play an important role in the developing world, are poorly understood. Bananas are a staple food and a major export commodity for many tropical nations. Here we show that for 27 countries - accounting for 86% of global dessert banana production - a changing climate since 1961 has increased yields by an average of 1.37 T.ha. Past gains have been largely ubiquitous across the countries assessed and African producers will continue to see yield increases into the future. However, global yield gains could be dampened or disappear in the future, reducing to 0.59 T.haand 0.19 T.haby 2050 under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, driven by declining yields amongst the largest producers and exporters. By quantifying climate-driven and technology-driven influences on yield, we also identify countries at risk from climate change and those capable of mitigating its effects, or capitalising on its benefits.