Walker Institute for Climate System Research, Department of Agriculture, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
Science. 2013 Aug 2;341(6145):508-13. doi: 10.1126/science.1239402.
Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.
气候变化有可能会阻碍世界消除饥饿的进程。气候变化对作物生产力的影响在全球范围内呈现出强劲而一致的模式，这可能会对粮食供应产生影响。由于供应的短期波动性，粮食系统的整体稳定性可能会受到气候变化的威胁。然而，在区域尺度上，潜在影响尚不清楚，但气候变化的可变性和变化很可能会加剧目前容易饥饿和营养不足地区的粮食不安全状况。同样，可以预计，通过对家庭和个人收入的间接影响，以及由于丧失获得饮用水的机会和健康受损而导致粮食利用受到影响，粮食的可及性和利用将受到影响。有证据表明，需要对适应和缓解行动进行大量投资，以建立一个“气候智能型粮食系统”，使其更能抵御气候变化对粮食安全的影响。
