Institut de Systématique, Evolution, Biodiversité (ISYEB UMR7205), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, EPHE, Université des Antilles, CP 51, 57 rue Cuvier, 75005, Paris, France.
Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO UMR7204) MNHN, CNRS, Sorbonne Université - CP135, 43 rue Buffon, 75005, Paris, France.
Sci Rep. 2019 Oct 9;9(1):14471. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-51107-x.
Island systems are among the most vulnerable to climate change, which is predicted to induce shifts in temperature, rainfall and/or sea levels. Our aim was: (i) to map the relative vulnerability of islands to each of these threats from climate change on a worldwide scale; (ii) to estimate how island vulnerability would impact phylogenetic diversity. We focused on monocotyledons, a major group of flowering plants that includes taxa of important economic value such as palms, grasses, bananas, taro. Islands that were vulnerable to climate change were found at all latitudes, e.g. in Australia, Indonesia, the Caribbean, Pacific countries, the United States, although they were more common near the equator. The loss of highly vulnerable islands would lead to relatively low absolute loss of plant phylogenetic diversity. However, these losses tended to be higher than expected by chance alone even in some highly vulnerable insular systems. This suggests the possible collapse of deep and long branches in vulnerable islands. Measuring the vulnerability of each island is a first step towards a risk analysis to identify where the impacts of climate change are the most likely and what may be their consequences on biodiversity.
岛屿系统是最容易受到气候变化影响的系统之一，气候变化预计会导致温度、降雨量和/或海平面发生变化。我们的目的是：（i）在全球范围内绘制出岛屿对这些气候变化威胁的相对脆弱性地图；（ii）估计岛屿脆弱性将如何影响系统发育多样性。我们专注于单子叶植物，这是开花植物的一个主要类群，其中包括一些具有重要经济价值的类群，如棕榈、草、香蕉、芋头。易受气候变化影响的岛屿存在于所有纬度，例如澳大利亚、印度尼西亚、加勒比海、太平洋国家、美国，尽管它们在赤道附近更为常见。高度脆弱岛屿的丧失将导致植物系统发育多样性的绝对损失相对较低。然而，即使在一些高度脆弱的岛屿系统中，这些损失也往往高于仅通过随机因素预计的损失。这表明脆弱岛屿中深而长的分支可能会崩溃。衡量每个岛屿的脆弱性是进行风险分析的第一步，以确定气候变化的影响最有可能在哪里，以及它们对生物多样性可能产生的后果。
