Department of Health Knowledge Integration, Center for Health and Society, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Eur J Public Health. 2020 Feb 1;30(1):30-35. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/ckz200.
The use of foresight studies is common in some policy fields, but not in public health. Interest in such studies is growing. This paper gives a general overview of the Dutch Public Health Foresight Study (PHFS) 2018, providing insight into what performing a broad scenario exercise in the field of public health entails and its societal impacts.
The aim of the PHFS-2018 was: (a) to show how public health and healthcare in the Netherlands will develop over the next 25 years if we pursue our current course and detect 'new' developments; (b) to give options for dealing with the major future societal challenges. Part a was addressed by means of a quantitative business-as-usual scenario exercise complemented with qualitative thematic studies, and part b by elaborating courses of action for three key challenges, based on stakeholder consultation. Typical aspects of the PHFS methods are a multidisciplinary, participatory and conceptual approach and using a broad definition of health.
The PHFS-2018 is the basis for the upcoming National Health Policy Memorandum and the Trend Scenario is the baseline for the National Prevention Agreement. Unexpectedly, the findings about increasing mental pressure in young people received most attention. There still is room for expanding use of the study to its full potential.
Long-term thinking could be stimulated by using back casting techniques and stronger involvement of policy-makers in the elaboration of options for action. Lessons learned from developing intersectoral policy at the local level could be applied at the national level.
在一些政策领域，前瞻性研究的使用较为常见，但在公共卫生领域并非如此。人们对这类研究的兴趣正在增长。本文概述了 2018 年荷兰公共卫生前瞻性研究（PHFS），深入了解在公共卫生领域开展广泛情景演练所涉及的内容及其对社会的影响。
PHFS-2018 的目的是：(a)展示如果我们继续目前的发展轨迹，荷兰公共卫生和医疗保健在未来 25 年内将如何发展，并发现“新”的发展；(b)为应对主要的未来社会挑战提供选择。第(a)部分通过定量的常规情景演练来解决，辅以定性的专题研究，第(b)部分通过基于利益相关者协商制定应对三个关键挑战的行动方案来解决。PHFS 方法的典型特征是多学科、参与式和概念性方法，以及广泛定义健康。
PHFS-2018 是即将出台的国家卫生政策备忘录的基础，趋势情景是国家预防协议的基准。出人意料的是，关于年轻人心理压力增加的发现引起了最多的关注。该研究仍有充分的潜力可以进一步发挥。
通过使用回溯技术和让政策制定者更深入地参与制定行动方案，可以刺激长期思考。从地方一级制定跨部门政策中吸取的经验教训可以应用于国家一级。
