School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.
Te Pūnaha Matatini, Auckland, New Zealand.
PLoS One. 2019 Oct 29;14(10):e0224554. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0224554. eCollection 2019.
Preventing child abuse is a unifying goal. Making decisions that affect the lives of children is an unenviable task assigned to social services in countries around the world. The consequences of incorrectly labelling children as being at risk of abuse or missing signs that children are unsafe are well-documented. Evidence-based decision-making tools are increasingly common in social services provision but few, if any, have used social network data. We analyse a child protection services dataset that includes a network of approximately 5 million social relationships collected by social workers between 1996 and 2016 in New Zealand. We test the potential of information about family networks to improve accuracy of models used to predict the risk of child maltreatment. We simulate integration of the dataset with birth records to construct more complete family network information by including information that would be available earlier if these databases were integrated. Including family network data can improve the performance of models relative to using individual demographic data alone. The best models are those that contain the integrated birth records rather than just the recorded data. Having access to this information at the time a child's case is first notified to child protection services leads to a particularly marked improvement. Our results quantify the importance of a child's family network and show that a better understanding of risk can be achieved by linking other commonly available datasets with child protection records to provide the most up-to-date information possible.
预防儿童虐待是一个统一的目标。做出影响儿童生活的决策是一项艰巨的任务,这项任务被分配给了世界各国的社会服务机构。错误地将儿童标记为有受虐待风险或遗漏儿童不安全迹象的后果有案可查。基于证据的决策工具在社会服务提供中越来越普遍,但很少有(如果有的话)使用社交网络数据。我们分析了一个儿童保护服务数据集,该数据集包含了 1996 年至 2016 年间新西兰社会工作者收集的大约 500 万个社交关系网络。我们测试了家庭网络信息在提高用于预测儿童虐待风险的模型准确性方面的潜力。我们模拟了数据集与出生记录的整合,通过包括如果这些数据库整合后更早获得的信息,构建更完整的家庭网络信息。包含家庭网络数据可以提高模型的性能,而不仅仅是使用个人人口统计数据。表现最好的模型是那些包含整合出生记录的模型,而不仅仅是记录的数据。在儿童保护服务首次接到儿童案件通知时能够获得这些信息,会导致显著的改善。我们的结果量化了儿童家庭网络的重要性,并表明通过将其他常用数据集与儿童保护记录相链接,以提供最新的信息,可以更好地了解风险。