Spatio-temporal variation of land use and ecosystem service values and their impact factors in an urbanized agricultural basin since the reform and opening of China.

The provision capacity of ecosystem services is affected by land-use/land-cover (LULC) change and biophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Studies related to ecosystem service values (ESVs) and their impact factors can provide a good reference for natural capital management. In this paper, the temporal and spatial dynamics of LULC and ESVs in the Nansihu Lake basin, China, since the reform and opening of China were analyzed by a combined method of spatial analysis and correlation analysis, and the factors that influence ESV changes were discussed. The results indicated that the main LULC changes were the enormous loss of cultivated land and rapid urban land expansion since the policy of reformation and opening in 1978. The ESVs in the basin decreased by 1.64% (1.70 × 10 US$) from 1975 to 2015, and the main impact factors of this temporal change in ESVs were the changes in waterbodies and cultivated land. Spatial patterns of ESVs were significantly influenced by socio-economic factors in the basin, such as population density and intensity of land use. This research provides alternatives and robust information for policy-making processes for the Nansihu Lake basin, and similar work can be conducted in other parts of the country.