School of Engineering, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD, 4222, Australia.
CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia.
Environ Monit Assess. 2019 Nov 15;191(12):752. doi: 10.1007/s10661-019-7841-1.
Tropical regions are characterized by hydrological extreme events, which are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Therefore, quantifying the extent to which climate change may damage a hydrological system becomes crucial. This paper aims to evaluate the findings from previous research on projected impacts of climate change on hydrological systems located in regions bounded by the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. It intends to provide an in-depth understanding of the climatic conditions, applied approaches, climate change impacts on future streamflow, and measures to reduce prediction uncertainty in the tropics. The review revealed that there is a significant variation in the magnitude of climate change impacts on streamflow in the tropics. The reason for the inconsistent trend prediction is that projections are heavily dependent on the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions, climate model structural differences, and uncertainty of downscaling methods and hydrological models. Therefore, to minimize the uncertainty and maximize confidence in streamflow projections, it is essential to apply multi-member model ensembles and to clarify the adaptation strategy (coping, adjusting, or transforming).
热带地区的特点是存在水文极端事件，而这些事件很可能因气候变化而加剧。因此，量化气候变化可能对水文系统造成的破坏程度至关重要。本文旨在评估之前关于处于北回归线和南回归线之间的地区的水文系统受气候变化影响的研究结果。本文旨在深入了解热带地区的气候条件、应用方法、气候变化对未来径流量的影响，以及减少预测不确定性的措施。综述表明，气候变化对热带地区径流量的影响程度存在显著差异。预测趋势不一致的原因是，预测结果严重依赖于温室气体排放轨迹、气候模型结构差异以及降尺度方法和水文模型的不确定性。因此，为了最大限度地减少不确定性并提高对径流量预测的信心，应用多成员模型集合和阐明适应策略（应对、调整或转变）是至关重要的。
