Santer B D, Wigley T M L, Mears C, Wentz F J, Klein S A, Seidel D J, Taylor K E, Thorne P W, Wehner M F, Gleckler P J, Boyle J S, Collins W D, Dixon K W, Doutriaux C, Free M, Fu Q, Hansen J E, Jones G S, Ruedy R, Karl T R, Lanzante J R, Meehl G A, Ramaswamy V, Russell G, Schmidt G A
Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA.
Science. 2005 Sep 2;309(5740):1551-6. doi: 10.1126/science.1114867. Epub 2005 Aug 11.
The month-to-month variability of tropical temperatures is larger in the troposphere than at Earth's surface. This amplification behavior is similar in a range of observations and climate model simulations and is consistent with basic theory. On multidecadal time scales, tropospheric amplification of surface warming is a robust feature of model simulations, but it occurs in only one observational data set. Other observations show weak, or even negative, amplification. These results suggest either that different physical mechanisms control amplification processes on monthly and decadal time scales, and models fail to capture such behavior; or (more plausibly) that residual errors in several observational data sets used here affect their representation of long-term trends.
热带温度的逐月变率在对流层比在地球表面更大。这种放大行为在一系列观测和气候模型模拟中是相似的，并且与基本理论一致。在数十年的时间尺度上，对流层对地表变暖的放大是模型模拟的一个稳健特征，但它只出现在一个观测数据集中。其他观测显示出微弱甚至负的放大。这些结果表明，要么是不同的物理机制控制着月度和年代际时间尺度上的放大过程，而模型未能捕捉到这种行为；要么（更有可能）是这里使用的几个观测数据集中的残余误差影响了它们对长期趋势的呈现。
