Risk prediction for 30-day mortality among patients with infections: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines have unsatisfied performance in predicting severe outcomes after infection (CDI). Our objectives were to develop a risk prediction model for 30-day mortality and to examine its performance among inpatients with CDI.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was conducted at China Medical University Hospital, a 2111-bed tertiary medical center in central Taiwan. We included adult inpatients who had a first positive culture or toxin assay and had diarrhea as the study population. The main exposure of interest was the biochemical profiles of white blood cell count, serum creatinine (SCr), estimated glomerular filtration rate, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum albumin, and glucose. The primary outcome was the 30-day all-cause mortality and the secondary outcome was the length of stay in the intensive care units (ICU) following CDI. A multivariable Cox model and a logistic regression model were developed using clinically relevant and statistically significant variables for 30-day mortality and for length of ICU stay, respectively. A risk scoring system was established by standardizing the coefficients. We compared the performance of our models and the guidelines.

RESULTS

Of 401 patients, 23.4% died within 30 days. In the multivariable model, malignancy (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.95), ≥ 1.5-fold rise in SCr (HR = 2.27), BUN-to-SCr ratio > 20 (HR = 2.04), and increased glucose (≥ 193 vs < 142 mg/dL, HR = 2.18) were significant predictors of 30-day mortality. For patients who survived the first 30 days of CDI, BUN-to-SCr ratio > 20 (Odds ratio [OR] = 4.01) was the only significant predictor for prolonged (> 9 days) length of ICU stay following CDI. The Harrell's statistic of our Cox model for 30-day mortality (0.727) was significantly superior to those of SHEA-IDSA 2010 (0.645), SHEA-IDSA 2018 (0.591), and ECSMID (0.650). Similarly, the conventional statistic of our logistic regression model for prolonged ICU stay (0.737) was significantly superior to that of the guidelines (SHEA-IDSA 2010,  = 0.600; SHEA-IDSA 2018,  = 0.634; ESCMID,  = 0.645). Our risk prediction scoring system for 30-day mortality correctly reclassified 20.7, 32.1, and 47.9% of patients, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model that included novel biomarkers of BUN-to-SCr ratio and glucose have a higher predictive performance of 30-day mortality and prolonged ICU stay following CDI than do the guidelines.