Tiret L, Hatton F, Desmonts J M, Vourc'h G
Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, Unité 164, Villejuif, France.
Stat Med. 1988 Sep;7(9):947-54. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780070906.
The prediction of outcome of anaesthesia in patients over 40 years of age was assessed using a multifactorial index based on current preoperative factors recorded prospectively. The study was conducted using a representative sample of anaesthetizations (except for cardiac surgery) including 517 cases with major complication (occurring during or within 24 hours of anaesthesia) and a one in fifty random sample comprising 1538 cases without complication. A split sample approach was adopted and a logistic regression model was applied to two subsets of similar size. Four preoperative factors were significantly associated with the occurrence of complications: ASA physical status, age, surgical procedure (major/minor) and type (elective/emergency). Goodness-of-fit of the model was assessed using another sample of 332 cases with complication and a different subset of 987 cases without complication. The model fitted the data well (p = 0.15).
使用基于前瞻性记录的当前术前因素的多因素指数，对40岁以上患者的麻醉结局进行预测评估。该研究采用了具有代表性的麻醉样本（心脏手术除外），包括517例发生重大并发症（在麻醉期间或麻醉后24小时内发生）的病例以及1/50的随机样本，其中包含1538例无并发症的病例。采用了分割样本方法，并将逻辑回归模型应用于两个规模相似的子集。四个术前因素与并发症的发生显著相关：美国麻醉医师协会（ASA）身体状况、年龄、手术类型（大手术/小手术）和手术时机（择期/急诊）。使用另一个包含332例有并发症病例的样本和一个不同的包含987例无并发症病例的子集评估模型的拟合优度。该模型对数据拟合良好（p = 0.15）。
