Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China.
Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 86 Luan Road, Luyang District, Hefei, 230061, Anhui, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Feb;27(4):4489-4501. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-07073-y. Epub 2019 Dec 12.
Mumps remains one of the worldwide major health problems over the past decade. Seasonal variations of mumps indicate that meteorological factors play an important role in the development of mumps, but few studies have investigated the relationship between extreme meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps. Daily mumps cases and meteorological factors in Hefei, China, from 2011 to 2016 were obtained. A generalized additive model combined with the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to quantify the risk of extreme meteorological factors on mumps incidence. Nonlinear relationships were observed among all meteorological factors and mumps incidence. We found that extremely low and high temperatures increased the risk of mumps. The relative risks (RRs) of the cumulative effects along 30 lag days were 2.02 (95%CI: 1.14-3.56) and 2.42 (95%CI: 1.37-4.24), respectively. Both short and long sunshine duration had negative correlation on mumps, with cumulative RRs of 0.64 (95%CI: 0.46-0.92) and 0.57 (95%CI: 0.44-0.74), respectively. In the subgroup analysis, males were found to be more sensitive to extreme weather, especially extreme temperatures and sunshine duration. This study suggests that extreme meteorological factors, especially extreme temperatures and sunshine duration, exert a significant impact on the incidence of mumps. When formulating and implementing effective strategies to the prevention and control of mumps, authorities should take the effect caused by extreme meteorological factors into consideration and pay more attention to susceptible populations, such as male children and teenagers.
腮腺炎在过去十年仍然是全球主要的健康问题之一。腮腺炎的季节性变化表明气象因素在腮腺炎的发展中起着重要作用，但很少有研究调查极端气象因素与腮腺炎发病率之间的关系。获取了 2011 年至 2016 年中国合肥的每日腮腺炎病例和气象因素。使用广义相加模型结合分布式滞后非线性模型（DLNM）来量化极端气象因素对腮腺炎发病率的风险。所有气象因素与腮腺炎发病率之间存在非线性关系。我们发现极低和高温都会增加腮腺炎的风险。30 天滞后期间累积效应的相对风险（RR）分别为 2.02（95％CI：1.14-3.56）和 2.42（95％CI：1.37-4.24）。短时间和长时间的日照时间都与腮腺炎呈负相关，累积 RR 分别为 0.64（95％CI：0.46-0.92）和 0.57（95％CI：0.44-0.74）。在亚组分析中，男性对极端天气更为敏感，尤其是极端温度和日照时间。本研究表明，极端气象因素，尤其是极端温度和日照时间，对腮腺炎的发病率有重大影响。在制定和实施有效的腮腺炎预防和控制策略时，当局应考虑极端气象因素的影响，并更加关注易感人群，如男童和青少年。
