Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Feb 25;705:135824. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135824. Epub 2019 Nov 29.
The present study compared different approaches to assessing the environmental cost-effectiveness of energy policy scenarios. As a case study, the megacity of Tehran in Iran was studied. A key policy challenge in this city is to curb high concentrations of PM and mitigate the associated adverse impacts. The results demonstrated that in the business as usual case, the spatially averaged primary and secondary PM concentration in Tehran will increase by 30% in the 2010-2030 period. Adopting certain planned policy scenarios and the corresponding pollutant concentration reductions in Tehran shows that although most of the emission comes from industrial activities around the city, the distribution of the transportation emission sources may play the most effective role in decreasing pollution levels in transport-related energy policies. Next, based on environmental damage costs and abatement costs in different pollution mitigation scenarios, the best (most environmentally cost-effective) scenarios were evaluated. The eco-efficiencies of the energy policies were assessed based on two proxies of environmental impacts: the reduced damage cost as a function of the reduced emission rates of the pollutants and the decreased number of polluted days in the year. In a sample area in which the simulated concentrations were verified by local measurements, the most efficient mitigation scenario would decrease the average concentration of PM by 35% in 2030 and the number of polluted days by 20%. These findings indicate how far the linear functionality of the damage cost from emission levels may mislead environmental impact assessments. This is due to neglecting the source distribution effects and geographical conditions of the environment.
本研究比较了评估能源政策情景环境成本效益的不同方法。以伊朗德黑兰市为例进行了研究。该市面临的一个主要政策挑战是遏制 PM 浓度过高和减轻相关不利影响。研究结果表明，在“照常营业”的情况下，德黑兰的空间平均一次和二次 PM 浓度将在 2010-2030 年间增加 30%。采用某些计划中的政策情景以及德黑兰相应的污染物浓度降低表明，尽管大部分排放来自城市周围的工业活动，但交通排放源的分布可能在减少与交通相关的能源政策中的污染水平方面发挥最有效的作用。接下来，根据不同污染缓解情景下的环境损害成本和减排成本，评估了最佳（最具环境成本效益）情景。根据两种环境影响代理来评估能源政策的生态效率：作为污染物减排率的函数的降低损害成本和当年受污染天数的减少。在一个模拟浓度由当地测量验证的样本区域中，最有效的缓解情景将使 2030 年 PM 的平均浓度降低 35%，受污染天数减少 20%。这些发现表明，损害成本与排放水平的线性功能可能在环境影响评估中产生多大的误导。这是由于忽视了排放源分布效应和环境的地理条件。
