Bijur P E, Golding J, Haslum M
Department of Pediatrics, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, New York.
Pediatrics. 1988 Nov;82(5):707-12.
Data regarding 10,394 children from the 1970 British birth cohort were used to assess the consistency of injuries reported by parents as occurring between birth and 5 years of age and injuries reported between 5 and 10 years of age. Children with three or more separate injury events reported between birth and 5 years of age were 5.9 times more likely to have three or more injuries reported between 5 and 10 years of age than children without early injuries (95% confidence interval = 4.4 to 8.0). Children with one or more injuries resulting in hospitalization before 5 years of age were 2.5 times as likely to have one or more admissions to the hospital for injuries after 5 years of age than children with no early hospitalizations for injuries (95% confidence interval = 2.0 to 3.3). Stepwise regression was used to identify other predictors of injury. The number of injuries before 5 years of age were the best predictors of injuries reported between 5 and 10 years of age, followed by male sex, aggressive child behavior, young maternal age, many older, and few younger siblings. The findings of this study are consistent with two other large studies that relied on medical records rather than parental report and that focused on more severe injuries. Children with several of the identified risk factors can be predicted to have high rates of accidental injuries and may benefit from focused intervention.
来自1970年英国出生队列的10394名儿童的数据被用于评估父母报告的出生至5岁期间发生的伤害与5至10岁期间报告的伤害之间的一致性。出生至5岁期间报告有三次或更多次不同伤害事件的儿童，在5至10岁期间报告有三次或更多次伤害的可能性是没有早期伤害的儿童的5.9倍（95%置信区间=4.4至8.0）。5岁前有一次或多次伤害导致住院的儿童，5岁后因伤害而住院一次或多次的可能性是没有早期伤害住院的儿童的2.5倍（95%置信区间=2.0至3.3）。采用逐步回归来确定伤害的其他预测因素。5岁前的伤害次数是5至10岁期间报告伤害的最佳预测因素，其次是男性、儿童攻击性行为、母亲年龄小、年长兄弟姐妹多和年幼兄弟姐妹少。本研究的结果与另外两项大型研究一致，这两项研究依赖医疗记录而非父母报告，且关注的是更严重的伤害。可以预测，具有若干已确定风险因素的儿童意外受伤率较高，可能会从有针对性的干预中受益。
