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用进化博弈理论揭示异质网络中猴痘疫情的复杂动态。

Revealing the complex dynamics of monkeypox epidemics in heterogeneous networks by the evolutionary game theory.

作者信息

Ullah Mohammad Sharif, Wang Jin

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, Chattanooga, TN, 37403, USA.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Aug 14;15(1):29889. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-13220-y.

Abstract

Gaining insight into the mechanisms of zoonotic disease transmission in both animal and human populations is essential for implementing effective measures to control the disease spread and mitigate its impact. This paper employs an evolutionary game theory framework to analyze the intricate dynamics of Monkeypox (mpox) epidemics across diverse networks, including scale-free and random regular networks with four network settings (BA-BA, ER-ER, BA-ER, and ER-BA) in both humans and animals. We investigate how individual behaviors and interactions influence the spread of diseases in different populations by combining network structures with evolutionary game dynamics. The results of our research reveal complex patterns, including the emergence of super-spreaders who transmit the disease to numerous others and the impact of the network structure on the disease's persistence and transmission. Furthermore, we demonstrate the practicality of this method in clarifying crucial elements that drive the spatial and temporal expansion of mpox, providing a valuable understanding of the efficacy of focused intervention strategies. Our work emphasizes the importance of multidisciplinary approaches in understanding the complex dynamics of infectious diseases and informing public health responses.

摘要

深入了解人畜共患病在动物和人类群体中的传播机制,对于采取有效措施控制疾病传播并减轻其影响至关重要。本文采用进化博弈论框架,分析猴痘(mpox)疫情在不同网络中的复杂动态,包括人类和动物中的无标度网络和具有四种网络设置(BA-BA、ER-ER、BA-ER和ER-BA)的随机规则网络。我们通过将网络结构与进化博弈动态相结合,研究个体行为和相互作用如何影响不同群体中疾病的传播。我们的研究结果揭示了复杂的模式,包括将疾病传播给许多其他人的超级传播者的出现,以及网络结构对疾病持续性和传播的影响。此外,我们证明了该方法在阐明驱动猴痘时空扩展的关键因素方面的实用性,为聚焦干预策略的有效性提供了有价值的认识。我们的工作强调了多学科方法在理解传染病复杂动态和为公共卫生应对提供信息方面的重要性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c1b2/12354717/583b5eb30a63/41598_2025_13220_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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