Global Change Research Group, Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies, University of the Balearic Islands-Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Esporles, Spain.
Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Centre Oceanogràfic de Balears Moll de Ponent s/n, Palma, Spain.
Nat Ecol Evol. 2020 Jan;4(1):109-114. doi: 10.1038/s41559-019-1058-0. Epub 2019 Dec 23.
Vertical migration to reach cooler waters is a suitable strategy for some marine organisms to adapt to ocean warming. Here, we calculate that realized vertical isotherm migration rates averaged -6.6 + 18.8 m dec across the global ocean between 1980 and 2015. Throughout this century (2006-2100), surface isotherms are projected to deepen at an increasing rate across the globe, averaging -32.3 m dec under the representative concentration pathway (RCP)8.5 'business as usual' emissions scenario, and -18.7 m dec under the more moderate RCP4.5 scenario. The vertical redistribution required by organisms to follow surface isotherms over this century is three to four orders of magnitude less than the equivalent horizontal redistribution distance. However, the seafloor depth and the depth of the photic layer pose ultimate limits to the vertical migration possible by species. Both limits will be reached by the end of this century across much of the ocean, leading to a rapid global compression of the three-dimensional (3D) habitat of many marine organisms. Phytoplankton diversity may be maintained but displaced toward the base of the photic layer, whereas highly productive benthic habitats, especially corals, will have their suitable 3D habitat rapidly reduced.
垂直迁移以到达较冷的水域是一些海洋生物适应海洋变暖的一种合适策略。在这里,我们计算出在 1980 年至 2015 年期间,全球海洋的实际等温线垂直迁移率平均为-6.6+18.8m/dec。在本世纪(2006-2100 年),全球范围内表层等温水体预计将以越来越快的速度加深,在代表浓度途径(RCP)8.5“照常营业”排放情景下,平均每年下沉-32.3m/dec,在更为温和的 RCP4.5 情景下下沉-18.7m/dec。本世纪为了跟随表层等温水体,生物所需的垂直再分配比等效的水平再分配距离小三个到四个数量级。然而,海底深度和光层深度对物种可能进行的垂直迁移构成了最终限制。到本世纪末,海洋的大部分地区都将达到这两个限制,导致许多海洋生物的三维(3D)栖息地迅速在全球范围内压缩。浮游植物多样性可能得以维持,但会向光层底部转移,而高生产力的底栖生境,特别是珊瑚,其适宜的 3D 生境将迅速减少。