Guo Xiuwen, Gao Yang, Zhang Shaoqing, Cai Wenju, Chen Deliang, Leung L Ruby, Zscheischler Jakob, Thompson Luanne, Davis Kristen, Qu Binglin, Gao Huiwang, Wu Lixin
Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science and Ecology, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, and Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China.
Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ministry of Education, the College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, and Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China.
Nat Commun. 2024 Dec 30;15(1):10777. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-54946-z.
A shift in depth range enables marine organisms to adapt to marine heatwaves (MHWs). Subsurface MHWs could limit this pathway, yet their response to climate warming remains unclear. Here, using an eddy-resolving Earth system model forced under a high emission scenario, we project a robust global increase in subsurface MHWs driven by rising subsurface mean temperatures and enhanced temperature variability. Historically, maximum MHW intensity occurs around 100 m depth, which shifts to the faster-warming surface under greenhouse warming. However, removing the long-term warming trend yields an increase in subsurface MHW intensity and annual days greater than that at the surface, especially in large marine ecosystem regions, primarily due to increased variability. Additionally, days of the surface and subsurface concurrent event increase ten times more than those of individual events. Our study highlights a heightened threat to marine organisms under global warming, as the increased subsurface heatwaves reduce their refuge options.
深度范围的变化使海洋生物能够适应海洋热浪（MHWs）。次表层海洋热浪可能会限制这一途径，但其对气候变暖的响应仍不清楚。在此，我们使用一个在高排放情景下驱动的涡旋分辨地球系统模型，预测由次表层平均温度上升和温度变率增强驱动的全球次表层海洋热浪将显著增加。从历史上看，最大海洋热浪强度出现在约100米深度处，在温室变暖情况下，该深度会向升温更快的表层转移。然而，去除长期变暖趋势后，次表层海洋热浪强度和持续天数的增加幅度超过表层，特别是在大型海洋生态系统区域，主要原因是变率增加。此外，表层和次表层同时出现海洋热浪的天数增加幅度比单独事件多十倍。我们的研究强调了全球变暖对海洋生物构成的更大威胁，因为次表层热浪增加减少了它们的避难选择。
