Ruget Anne-Sophie, Tran Annelise, Waret-Szkuta Agnès, Moutroifi Youssouf Ousseni, Charafouddine Onzade, Cardinale Eric, Cêtre-Sossah Catherine, Chevalier Véronique
UMR ASTRE, CIRAD, Ste-Clotilde, France.
ASTRE, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Montpellier, France.
Front Vet Sci. 2019 Dec 12;6:455. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2019.00455. eCollection 2019.
Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV), responsible for peste des petits ruminants (PPR), is widely circulating in Africa and Asia. The disease is a huge burden for the economy and development of the affected countries. In Eastern Africa, the disease is considered endemic. Because of the geographic proximity and existing trade between eastern African countries and the Comoros archipelago, the latter is at risk of introduction and spread, and the first PPR outbreaks occurred in the Union of the Comoros in 2012. The objective of this study was to map the areas suitable for PPR occurrence and spread in the Union of the Comoros and four eastern African countries, namely Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania. A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based Multicriteria Evaluation (MCE) was developed. Risk factors for PPR occurrence and spread, and their relative importance, were identified using literature review and expert-based knowledge. Corresponding geographic data were collected, standardized, and combined based on a weighted linear combination to obtain PPR suitability maps. The accuracy of the maps was assessed using outbreak data from the EMPRES database and a ROC curve analysis. Our model showed an excellent ability to distinguish between absence and presence of outbreaks in Eastern Africa (AUC = 0.907; 95% CI [0.820-0.994]), and a very good performance in the Union of the Comoros (AUC = 0.889, 95% CI: [0.694-1]). These results highlight the efficiency of the GIS-MCE method, which can be applied at different geographic scales: continental, national and local. The resulting maps provide decision support tools for implementation of disease surveillance and control measures, thus contributing to the PPR eradication goal of OIE and FAO by 2030.
小反刍兽疫病毒（PPRV）是小反刍兽疫（PPR）的病原体，在非洲和亚洲广泛传播。这种疾病给受影响国家的经济和发展带来了巨大负担。在东非，该疾病被视为地方病。由于东非国家与科摩罗群岛地理位置接近且存在贸易往来，后者面临着病毒传入和传播的风险，2012年科摩罗联盟首次爆发了小反刍兽疫。本研究的目的是绘制科摩罗联盟以及四个东非国家（即埃塞俄比亚、乌干达、肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚）适合小反刍兽疫发生和传播的区域。开发了一种基于地理信息系统（GIS）的多标准评价（MCE）方法。通过文献综述和专家知识确定了小反刍兽疫发生和传播的风险因素及其相对重要性。收集、标准化并基于加权线性组合合并相应的地理数据，以获得小反刍兽疫适宜性地图。使用来自EMPRES数据库的疫情数据和ROC曲线分析评估地图的准确性。我们的模型在区分东非有无疫情方面表现出色（AUC = 0.907；95% CI [0.820 - 0.994]），在科摩罗联盟的表现也非常好（AUC = 0.889，95% CI：[0.694 - 1]）。这些结果突出了GIS - MCE方法的有效性，该方法可应用于不同地理尺度：大陆、国家和地方。生成的地图为实施疾病监测和控制措施提供了决策支持工具，从而有助于实现世界动物卫生组织（OIE）和联合国粮食及农业组织（FAO）到2030年根除小反刍兽疫的目标。
