Tan Mou Leong, Tew Yi Lin, Liew Juneng, Bala Govindasamy, Tye Mari R, Chang Chun Kiat, Muhamad Nurfashareena
GeoInformatic Unit, Geography Section, School of Humanities, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia.
Department of Earth Sciences and Environment, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Oct 20;948:174817. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174817. Epub 2024 Jul 15.
The concept of solar geoengineering remains a topic of debate, yet it may be an effective way for cooling the Earth's temperature. Nevertheless, the impact of solar geoengineering on regional or local climate patterns is an active area of research. This study aims to evaluate the impact of solar geoengineering on precipitation and temperature extremes of the Muda River Basin (MRB), a very important agricultural basin situated in the northern Peninsular Malaysia. The analysis utilized the multi-model ensemble mean generated by four models that contributed to the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP6). These models were configured to simulate the solar irradiance reduction (G6solar) and stratospheric sulfate aerosols (G6sulfur) strategies as well as the moderate (SSP245) and high emission (SSP585) experiments. Prior to the computation of extreme indices, a linear scaling approach was employed to bias correct the daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures. The findings show that the G6solar and G6sulfur experiments, particularly the latter, could be effective in holding the increases in both annual and monthly mean precipitation totals and temperature extremes close to the increases projected under SSP245. For example, both G6solar and G6sulfur experiments project increases of temperature over the basin of 2 °C at the end of the 21st century as compared to 3.5 °C under SSP585. The G6solar and G6sulfur experiments also demonstrate some reliability in modulating the increases in precipitation extreme indices associated with flooding to match those under SSP245. However, the G6sulfur experiment may exacerbate dry conditions in the basin, as monthly precipitation is projected to decrease during the dry months from January to May and consecutives dry days are expected to increase, particularly during the 2045-2064 and 2065-2084 periods. Increases dry spells could indirectly affect agricultural and freshwater supplies, and pose considerable challenges to farmers.
太阳地球工程的概念仍是一个有争议的话题，但它可能是降低地球温度的一种有效方式。尽管如此，太阳地球工程对区域或局部气候模式的影响仍是一个活跃的研究领域。本研究旨在评估太阳地球工程对穆达河流域（MRB）降水和极端温度的影响，该流域是马来西亚半岛北部一个非常重要的农业流域。分析使用了由参与地球工程模型比较计划（GeoMIP6）的四个模型生成的多模型集合平均值。这些模型被配置为模拟太阳辐照度降低（G6solar）和平流层硫酸盐气溶胶（G6sulfur）策略以及中等排放（SSP245）和高排放（SSP585）实验。在计算极端指数之前，采用线性缩放方法对每日降水、最高和最低温度进行偏差校正。研究结果表明，G6solar和G6sulfur实验，尤其是后者，可能有效地使年平均和月平均降水总量以及极端温度的增加接近SSP245预测的增加幅度。例如，与SSP585下的3.5°C相比，G6solar和G6sulfur实验预测到21世纪末流域温度将升高2°C。G6solar和G6sulfur实验在调节与洪水相关的极端降水指数增加以使其与SSP245下的情况相匹配方面也显示出一定的可靠性。然而，G6sulfur实验可能会加剧该流域的干旱状况，因为预计1月至5月的干旱月份月降水量会减少，连续干旱天数会增加，特别是在2045 - 2064年和2065 - 2084年期间。干旱期增加可能间接影响农业和淡水供应，并给农民带来相当大的挑战。
