Gilmore Elisabeth A, Buhaug Halvard
Department of International Development, Community, and Environment Clark University Worcester Massachusetts USA.
Peace Research Institute Oslo Oslo Norway.
Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change. 2021 Sep-Oct;12(5):e722. doi: 10.1002/wcc.722. Epub 2021 Jun 17.
Climate policies will need to incentivize transformative societal changes if they are to achieve emission reductions consistent with 1.5°C temperature targets. To contribute to efforts for aligning climate policy with broader societal goals, specifically those related to sustainable development, we identify the effects of climate mitigation policy on aspects of socioeconomic development that are known determinants of conflict and evaluate the plausibility and importance of potential pathways to armed conflict and political violence. Conditional on preexisting societal tensions and socioeconomic vulnerabilities, we isolate effects on economic performance, income and livelihood, food and energy prices, and land tenure as most likely to increase conflict risks. Climate policy designs may be critical to moderate these risks as different designs can promote more favorable societal outcomes such as equity and inclusion. Coupling research with careful monitoring and evaluation of the intermediate societal effects at early stages of policy implementation will be a critical part of learning and moderating potential conflict risks. Importantly, better characterizing the future conflict risks under climate policy allows for a more comprehensive comparison to the conflict risk if mitigation is not implemented and graver climate damages are experienced. This article is categorized under:The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Benefits of Mitigation.
如果气候政策要实现与1.5°C温度目标相一致的减排，就需要激励社会发生变革。为推动气候政策与更广泛的社会目标（特别是与可持续发展相关的目标）保持一致，我们确定了气候缓解政策对社会经济发展各方面的影响，这些方面是已知的冲突决定因素，并评估了通向武装冲突和政治暴力的潜在途径的合理性和重要性。在既有的社会紧张局势和社会经济脆弱性的条件下，我们确定对经济表现、收入和生计、食品和能源价格以及土地保有权的影响最有可能增加冲突风险。气候政策设计对于缓解这些风险可能至关重要，因为不同的设计可以促进更有利的社会成果，如公平和包容。将研究与政策实施早期对中间社会影响的仔细监测和评估相结合，将是了解和缓解潜在冲突风险的关键部分。重要的是，更好地描述气候政策下未来的冲突风险，有助于与不实施缓解措施且遭受更严重气候破坏时的冲突风险进行更全面的比较。本文分类如下：碳经济与气候缓解>缓解的好处。
