Branch Marc N
Psychology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA.
Perspect Behav Sci. 2018 Jun 4;42(1):77-89. doi: 10.1007/s40614-018-0158-5. eCollection 2019 Mar.
Mainstream biomedical and behavioral sciences are facing what has been dubbed "the reproducibility crisis." The crisis is borne out of failures to replicate the results of published research at an average rate of somewhere near 50%. In this paper I make a case that the prime culprit leading to this unsatisfactory state of affairs has been the widespread use of -values from tests of statistical significance as a criterion for publication. Even though it has been known, and made public, for decades that -values provide no quantitative information about the likelihood that experimental results are likely to be repeatable, they remain a fundamental criterion for publication. A growing realization among researchers that -values do not provide information that bears on repeatability may offer an opportunity for wider application of research methods frequently used in the research specialty known as Behavior Analysis, as well as a few other research traditions. These alternative approaches are founded on within- and between-participant replication as integral parts of research designs. The erosion of public confidence in science, which is bolstered by the reproducibility crisis, is a serious threat. Anything that the field of Behavior Analysis can offer as assistance in ameliorating the problem should be welcomed.
主流生物医学和行为科学正面临着所谓的“可重复性危机”。这场危机源于已发表研究结果的平均重复率仅接近50%这一事实。在本文中,我认为导致这种不尽人意状况的主要罪魁祸首是广泛将统计显著性检验的p值用作发表标准。尽管几十年来人们都知道且已公开,p值并不能提供关于实验结果可重复性可能性的定量信息,但它们仍然是发表的基本标准。研究人员越来越意识到p值并不能提供与可重复性相关的信息,这可能为行为分析这一研究专业以及其他一些研究传统中常用的研究方法的更广泛应用提供机会。这些替代方法基于参与者内部和参与者之间的重复,将其作为研究设计的组成部分。可重复性危机加剧了公众对科学的信心侵蚀,这是一个严重威胁。行为分析领域能提供的任何有助于缓解该问题的帮助都应受到欢迎。